All Epsilon Theory Content

All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.

When E.F. Hutton Talks

By Ben Hunt | November 17, 2013 | 0 Comments

If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. – Barack Obama Of course, one objective of both traditional and nontraditional policy…

The Wages of Fear

By Ben Hunt | November 10, 2013 | 0 Comments

You don’t know what fear is. But you’ll see. It’s catching, it’s catching like small pox! And once you get it, it’s for life! So…

Poindexter Über Alles

By Ben Hunt | November 7, 2013 | 0 Comments

Recent papers written by Fed functionaries and the attendant media attention serve as a reminder of the academic and bureaucratic capture of the Fed. More…

A Game of Sentiment

By Ben Hunt | November 3, 2013 | 0 Comments

I know. You know I know. I know you know I know. We know Henry knows, and Henry knows we know it. We’re a knowledgeable…

Render Unto Caesar

By Ben Hunt | October 31, 2013 | 0 Comments

There are two sides to the Epsilon Theory coin — looking at market-shaping current events through the lens of game theory and history, and looking…

What Were Once Vices Are Now Habits

By Ben Hunt | October 31, 2013 | 0 Comments

The central banks of the West announced today that their temporary swap lines would be made permanent. Like QE itself, the meaning of this emergency…

The Koan of Donald Rumsfeld

By Ben Hunt | October 20, 2013 | 0 Comments

There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are…

The Levelers

By Ben Hunt | October 13, 2013 | 0 Comments

Mr. Incredible:  You mean you killed off real heroes so that you could *pretend* to be one? Syndrome:  Oh, I’m real. Real enough to defeat you! And…

A ‘Precise and Predictable’ Yellen Fed?

By Ben Hunt | October 10, 2013 | 0 Comments

The pursuit of greater predictability and transparency in Fed communications is a mistake, particularly in the context of broad guarantees concerning world-shaking policies. We learned…

A World of Guarantees

By Ben Hunt | October 6, 2013 | 0 Comments

“We’re gonna win the game. I guarantee it.” – Joe Namath, 3 days before Super Bowl III “Our torments also may in length of time…

It’s Always Something

By Ben Hunt | September 29, 2013 | 0 Comments

More evidence that QE is no longer an emergency government policy, but is now a permanent government program. epsilon-theory-its-always-something-september-29-2013.pdf (508KB)

Uttin’ on the Itz

By Ben Hunt | September 22, 2013 | 0 Comments

High hats and arrowed collars, white spats and lots of dollars Spending every dime, for a wonderful time If you’re blue and you don’t know…

Heeere Comes Lucky!

By Ben Hunt | September 15, 2013 | 0 Comments

“It is my understanding that the Constitution of the United States allows everybody the free choice between cheesecake and strudel.” – Sky Masterson (“Guys and…

It Was Barzini All Along

By Ben Hunt | September 8, 2013 | 0 Comments

“Tattaglia is a pimp. He never could have outfought Santino. But I didn’t know until this day that it was Barzini all along.” – Don Vito Corleone

Same with Emerging Market growth narratives. It was Developed Market monetary policy all along.

Shifting Narrative around Central Bank Omnipotence

By Ben Hunt | August 27, 2013 | 0 Comments

The strong Narrative around Central Bank Omnipotence, which solidified in late September 2012, is now clearly weakening in late August 2013. There are two strands…

The Narrative Shift around Emerging Markets

By Ben Hunt | August 21, 2013 | 0 Comments

The core Narrative around Emerging Markets is shifting away from growth and towards value. This is a profoundly disruptive development. epsilon-theory-the-narrative-shift-around-emerging-markets-august-21-2013.pdf (50KB)

Increased Instability in US Markets

By Ben Hunt | August 19, 2013 | 0 Comments

The Common Knowledge informational structure around the US market has weakened in recent weeks, making the risk/reward assessment of ALL exposures — long and short…

Schrödinger’s Portfolio

By Ben Hunt | August 3, 2013 | 0 Comments

“The world is given to me only once, not one existing and one perceived.” – Erwin Schrödinger “Quantum theory provides us with a striking illustration of…

The Framing of Macro Data

By Ben Hunt | July 31, 2013 | 0 Comments

A review of Narrative formation immediately after the July 31st release of Q2 US GDP data. epsilon-theory-the-framing-of-macro-data-july-31-2013.pdf (232Kb)

Rise of the Machines

By Ben Hunt | July 28, 2013 | 0 Comments

“Music, this complex and mysterious act, precise as algebra and vague as a dream, this art made out of mathematics and air, is simply the…