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All Epsilon Theory Content

All Epsilon Theory Content


Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.

The Name of the Rose

By Ben Hunt | September 1, 2014 | 0 Comments

If names be not correct, language is not in accordance with the truth of things.  ― Confucius, “The Analects of Confucius” (551 – 479 BC)…

An Ice Bucket Dilemma

By Ben Hunt | August 25, 2014 | 0 Comments

Something on the lighter side from Epsilon Theory today, as summer winds downs here in the last week of August. Most of us have seen videos galore…

One Little Old Russian Convoy

By Ben Hunt | August 15, 2014 | 0 Comments

You know what I’ve noticed? Nobody panics when things go “according to plan”. Even if the plan is horrifying. If, tomorrow, I tell the press…

Here We Go Again

By Ben Hunt | August 8, 2014 | 0 Comments

From an Epsilon Theory perspective, the scariest, most market risk-creating event of the past 48 hours had nothing to do with Iraq, nothing to do…

Fear and Loathing on the Marketing Trail, 2014

By Ben Hunt | August 5, 2014 | 0 Comments

I shared a dark suspicion that the life we were leading was a lost cause, that we were all actors, kidding ourselves along on a…

Watching the Narratives

By Ben Hunt | August 1, 2014 | 0 Comments

You think you’re alone until you realize you’re in it. Now fear is here to stay. Love is here for a visit. – Elvis Costello,…

Stalking Horse

By Ben Hunt | July 21, 2014 | 0 Comments

[Jeremiah and Bear Claw hunt elk] Jeremiah: Wind’s right, but he’ll just run soon as we step out of these trees. Bear Claw: Trick to…

The Red King

By Ben Hunt | July 14, 2014 | 2 Comments

“He’s dreaming now,” said Tweedledee, “and what do you think he’s dreaming about?” Alice said, “Nobody can guess that.” “Why, about you!” Tweedledee exclaimed, clapping…

The Donkey of Guizhou

By Ben Hunt | July 7, 2014 | 0 Comments

There were no donkeys in Guizhou until an eccentric took one there by boat; but finding no use for it he set it loose in…

The Dude Abides: China in the Golden Age of Central Bankers

By Ben Hunt | July 1, 2014 | 1 Comment

Today, however, the Chinese State faces two existential threats, each stemming from or accelerated by the Great Recession and Western policy responses to that crisis of market confidence.

First, QE and other “emergency” Western monetary policies of the past five years threaten the grand political unification of Deng Xiaoping from without. 

Second, massive wealth inequality and concentration driven largely by those same monetary policies threaten it from within.

Long Term Parking

By Ben Hunt | June 16, 2014 | 0 Comments

And I don’t want to hear about the freaking economy, either! Sil, break it down for ’em. What two businesses have traditionally been recession-proof since time immemorial?

Certain aspects of show business … and our thing.

Risk Analysis in the Golden Age of Central Bankers

By Ben Hunt | June 9, 2014 | 0 Comments

When I was a little kid we had a sand box. It was a quicksand box. I was an only child … eventually. – Steven…

The Minsky Moment Meme

By Ben Hunt | June 8, 2014 | 0 Comments

That’s not how it works. That’s not how any of this works. – Esurance “Beatrice” commercial There’s a wonderful commercial in heavy rotation on American television,…

When Does the Story Break?

By Ben Hunt | May 25, 2014 | 0 Comments

Margaret Bourke-White took this photo of the Garment District in 1930. Every single person on the street is wearing a hat. How did THAT behavior change over time? How did the Common Knowledge that All Men Wear Hats change?

Answer: the Common Knowledge Game.

Equity Volatility-of-Volatility Falls to All-Time Low

By Ben Hunt | May 12, 2014 | 0 Comments

1M implied volatility on the VIX fell to an all-time low last week. Generally speaking, this means that options on short-term market volatility increasing have…

All that Glitters

By Ben Hunt | May 9, 2014 | 0 Comments

I’ve received a lot of questions over the past few weeks about Russia and the Ukraine, and why I don’t include this flashpoint in my…

The Risk Trilogy

By Ben Hunt | May 4, 2014 | 0 Comments

A trilogy is a pretty abstract notion. You can apply it to almost any three things.  – Jonathan Demme Mozart: So then you like it?…

Core Curriculum

By Ben Hunt | April 28, 2014 | 0 Comments

I distributed this Epsilon Theory reading list last summer, but it never made it to the website. Given the volume of requests I receive for…

The Business of Epsilon Theory

By Ben Hunt | April 23, 2014 | 0 Comments

I started the Epsilon Theory project nine months ago with the publication of a “Manifesto” and an email to a few hundred friends and colleagues.…

The Adaptive Genius of Rigged Markets

By Ben Hunt | April 20, 2014 | 0 Comments

Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was – Talking Heads, “Once in…