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All Epsilon Theory Content

All Epsilon Theory Content

 

Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.

ET Podcast #2 – Personal Finance

By Ben Hunt | December 24, 2020 | 0 Comments

A conversation with Brian Portnoy, author of The Geometry of Wealth, about the role of money in shaping a life of meaning. How do we give better advice about money to others … and to ourselves?

Whatever It Takes

By William | December 18, 2020 | 2 Comments

As Monty Python would say … and now for something completely different.

It’s JPow fanfic day here at Epsilon Theory! Or “every day” as they refer to it on Wall Street.

Through the Tulips

By Harper Hunt | December 16, 2020 | 0 Comments

Jonathan Plotkin is a longtime ET reader and brilliant cartoonist. For years he’s been sending Ben illustrations inspired by our notes and we’ve been dying…

Office Hours – 12.15.2020

By Harper Hunt | December 14, 2020 | 2 Comments

In which Ben and Rusty discuss The Long Now, hedonic treadmills and swap SPAC stories.

The ZIRP Paradox

By Rusty Guinn | December 14, 2020 | 25 Comments

It may seem ironic that a narrative about the long-term could be deployed to distort the rewards of effective, market-based long-term capital allocation for short-term benefit.

This is, I think, the heart of The ZIRP Paradox:

The myth of infinite horizon investing is the enemy of long-term investing.

An Old Joke

By Rusty Guinn | December 9, 2020 | 23 Comments

So an agent for a new over-the-top variety act finally gets a meeting with the biggest producer in the world. I mean, maybe ‘the world’ is selling it short. Word on the street is this guy’s even got God’s ear, if you can believe it.

ET Podcast #1 – Is That All There Is?

By Ben Hunt | December 8, 2020 | 3 Comments

In this kick-off Epsilon Theory webcast, I’m joined by renowned cryptocurrency miner and trader @notsofast for a wide-ranging conversation on Bitcoin and crypto. Here’s the core topic:

Can Bitcoin preserve its revolutionary potential after a Wall Street bear hug?

I’m highly skeptical, but @notsofast has some ideas on how to make this work.

The Merger Is Complete

By Peter Cecchini | December 8, 2020 | 4 Comments

The merger between the Treasury and Fed is now complete with Janet Yellen’s apparent appointment as the Secretary of the Treasury. Let the self-fulfilling market narratives begin!

Russian Nesting Deals

By Rusty Guinn | December 3, 2020 | 4 Comments

Sometimes complicated is complicated because it has to be. But this nesting doll of a SPAC deal with Dyal (Neuberger Berman) IS weird and worthy of more than usual scrutiny, especially if you are an LP in one of these funds.

The Ghosts of Commentary Future

By Rusty Guinn | November 30, 2020 | 3 Comments

These are The Ghosts of Wall Street Commentary Future. And if their chains are not already clanking around in your inbox, they will be very, very soon.

Ten Times Faster Than The Sun’s Beams

By Ben Hunt | November 25, 2020 | 9 Comments

The Wall Street narrative machine is in overdrive to create a “Yay, Value!” rally here at year-end.

Like any effective advertising campaign, it will work. I’m not saying this rally isn’t real.

I’m saying that you should reconsider what “real” means.

AMA? BITFD!

By Ben Hunt | November 24, 2020 | 23 Comments

The American Medical Association is not a charitable organization.

The American Medical Association is not an educational organization.

The American Medical Association is a tax-exempt hedge fund and licensing corporation, designed from the ground up to enrich its executives and serve its own bureaucratic interests.

Burn. It. The. Fuck. Down.

Office Hours – 11.17.2020

By Rusty Guinn | November 17, 2020 | Comments Off on Office Hours – 11.17.2020

It’s the November 17th Office Hours, where Ben and Rusty discuss all things narrative in an interactive format.

The Endemic Mindset

By Rusty Guinn | November 16, 2020 | 38 Comments

COVID-19 is endemic, and its mutations will likely be part of our lives going forward.

But there is another disease this virus has caused, and it is a disease of the mind. It is the endemic mindset. And we can eradicate it.

Today.

The Grifters, Chapter 3 – Election Prediction

By Ben Hunt | November 9, 2020 | 30 Comments

Polls create the plays. Election models create the score. Fivey Fox and “Nate Silver” announce the game. All to create engagement with a diversified media corporation.

No one understands how to create and sell a spectator sport better than Disney.

You Can’t Handle The Lie

By Rusty Guinn | November 6, 2020 | 35 Comments

Any news outlet that won’t let you see a lie does not work for you.

A Tale of Two Cults

By Rusty Guinn | November 2, 2020 | 46 Comments

There’s a moment when the real world peeks through the narratives that surround us, and we convince ourselves that this will be the truth that frees our fellow citizens/investors/neighbors from their delusions.

But truth is only one of the necessary conditions for this kind of change. The other?

Mercy.

Oh No, Here It Comes Again, That Funny Feeling

By Ben Hunt | October 27, 2020 | 58 Comments

Three weeks ago, I didn’t see a narrative path for Trump to win a turnout-based election hinging on four or five swing states.

Today I do.

It’s the same funny feeling I got in 2016, but with a twist.

Perspicacious

By Harper Hunt | October 23, 2020 | 0 Comments

Jonathan Plotkin is a longtime ET reader and brilliant cartoonist. For years he’s been sending Ben illustrations inspired by our notes and we’ve been dying…

We are all MMTers (Still)

By Rusty Guinn | October 22, 2020 | 12 Comments

Stimulus is dominating market news, and even with an election coming up is playing an outsized role in political news. So what is the current fiscal stimulus really about?

Maybe more importantly, what is it absolutely, definitely NOT about?