Access the Powerpoint slides of this month’s ET Pro monitors here.
Access the PDF version of the ET Pro monitor slides here.
Access the underlying Excel data here.
- Nearly all our major macro narratives have sharply lower attention and cohesion in the month of November – Trade and Tariffs are no exception.
- We do not wish to overstate this. Even after this erosion, it remains Common Knowledge that the Trade War is what matters to risky asset markets.
- The erosion in cohesion is, perhaps, the more interesting. We are observing increasing polarization in the narrative structure.
- The visualization on the following page does a good job of presenting this. The east quadrant is defined by the language linking positive, optimistic and hopeful takes on the Trade War. The central, west and south regions are generally less constructive.
- It is instructive to us that the constructive clusters are less connected to the overall story being told. Regardless of sentiment scoring, we think that the current game of chicken Common Knowledge is that the Trade War isn’t and shouldn’t be a source of hope.
Narrative Sentiment Map
Narrative Attention Map