Trade and Tariffs Monitor – 10.31.2019


Access the Powerpoint slides of this month’s ET Pro monitors here.

Access the PDF version of the ET Pro monitor slides here.

Access the underlying Excel data here.

  • It is Common Knowledge that the China Trade War remains the most important risk/event to other investors.
  • The emergence of and resulting distraction form two additional core market topics, however, has meant that the attention on Trade War narratives has ticked down from our maximum level for the first time in month (see additional attention graphs below)
    • 2020 Election Politics and Impeachment; and
    • The Implications of a Failing IPO Market.
  • Our core view remains the same: this is an unpredictable Game of Chicken that warrants very little use of investors’ respective risk budgets. • • The fall in attention and stabilizing sentiment also leaves us concerned that many investors may be somewhat complacent about how risky assets would react to a return to negative trade news or political escalation.

Narrative Map

Narrative Attention Map

Supplemental Attention Maps

Narrative Attention

Narrative Cohesion

Fiat News Index

Narrative Sentiment

Key Articles

No Joy at the Factory on National Manufacturing Day [Bloomberg]

Nomura Says Hedge Funds Appear Bullish on Asia Before Trade Talks [Bloomberg]

Agriculture Funds Aim to Harvest Profit, Along With Corn and Wheat [NY Times]

U.S. markets tepid as trade uncertainty dampens a banner week for stocks [Washington Post]

U.K. Election Looms as Johnson Accepts Extension: Brexit Update [Bloomberg]


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