Trade and Tariffs Monitor – 1.31.2020

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  • Attention on Trade and Tariffs topics rose somewhat, but the inclusion of coronavirus language proved a distraction to the stories being told about them rather than a unifier.
  • More importantly, we think that the Phase 1 agreement between US/China led to a far more positive, Pollyannaish narrative structure on Trade.
  • We think that the fatigue over Trade news and the vacuum of the generally weak narrative structure in Q4 created a readiness to move on to other topics, including events like Iran and coronavirus.
  • We still have no edge (and believe it is impossible to have an edge) predicting long-term trade deal outcomes, but we are concerned that the Trade narrative is highly complacent, more likely to respond surprisingly to bad news than good.
  • We think any asset owners / managers with active positions on exposed assets should manage their risks accordingly.

Narrative Map

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

Narrative Sentiment Map

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

Narrative Attention Map

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

Narrative Attention


Narrative Cohesion


Fiat News Index


Narrative Sentiment

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