The Zeitgeist – 5.9.2019

Every morning, we run The Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the most on-narrative (i.e. interconnected and central) stories in financial media. It’s not a list of best articles or articles we think are most interesting … often far from it.

But for whatever reason these are articles that are representative of some sort of chord that has been struck in Narrative-world.


May 9, 2019 Narrative Map – US Equities

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

China Backtracked on Nearly All Aspects of U.S. Trade Deal [NY Times]

Process stories (what’s happening behind the scenes at the campaign / the White House / the locker room / the negotiations) are the original Fiat News. They are designed to make you angry and further the aims of whoever sourced the “reporting”.

Who benefits from making you angry at China and their “reneging” on a deal that never existed in the first place? Who benefits from a narrative of the Lying Enemy Abroad?

Think about that before you engage in your Two Minute Hate.

Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia. Or was it Eurasia? I don’t seem to remember so well these days.

The NYT is running hard with this story because they think it reflects badly on Trump. LOL. It’s HIS story.

More evidence that the NYT is the worst metagame player in the history of the world.


Trade Talks Have Two Key Implications for Markets [Bloomberg]

Each Word of Trump’s Tariff Tweets Wiped $13 Billion Off Stocks [Bloomberg]

How To Trade The China Trade War [Forbes]

Once more with feeling …

THERE ARE NO ODDS IN A GAME OF CHICKEN.

It’s not 50/50. It’s not 60/40. It’s not whatever you think they are. You have no edge and there are no odds in the China trade talks. Just stop it.


Delays to Brazil’s Pension Overhaul Raise Economic Concerns [Dow Jones]

“My costs have increased 20% [in two years] because of the stronger dollar,” Mr. Carvalhal said in a bare-bones office in his sprawling warehouse stocked with Argentine wine, German beer, Spanish cheese and other imports. “How can I pass that along to the consumer if the economy is tanking?”

The only bright spot for him and millions of other businesspeople and consumers comes from Brazil’s central bank, which on Wednesday is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate, known as the Selic rate, at the historic low of 6.5% where it has been at since March, 2018.

The dollar is now stronger than it was when the world was going to end in January 2016.

What do you think the odds are for a Shanghai Accord today? LOL.


Dimon Says Yields `Extraordinarily Low’, 4% Wouldn’t Be Bad [Bloomberg]

My president.


Lyft’s stock is plunging, flirting with a record low after its first public earnings report fails to impress investors [Business Insider]

I’m old enough to remember when a company wouldn’t go public until it was ready to rock with a stellar first public earnings report to confirm all those sell-side firms initiating coverage with a Strong Buy.


Business Genius Trump Lost More Money Than Anyone in America Between 1985-1994 [Rolling Stone]

Oooh, they’ve got him now! Burn … sick burn!

Yawn.


Comments

  1. My favorite subcategory of Process Stories are what I call Feeling Stories, explaining what somebody important REALLY thinks about an issue. So many hops in that game of telephone that the reader can’t help but get played by somebody.

    BTW, Nadler has the look of a man who is looking around the table and can’t find the patsy.

  2. More evidence that the NYT is the worst metagame player in the history of the world.

    I think this is important and deserves a more detailed discussion.
    Is the Times just following the same behavior patterns of the rest of the MSM or do they really stand out as substantially worse than the cable TV networks and other national publications? My gut says you see the NYT/WSJ/CNN fixate on slightly different types of manufactured narratives (because of audience/ideological differences) but that the underlying problems are virtually identical. My gut says that the widening gyre of public debate is largely due to the willful ignorance of these outlets as to how they are being manipulated by the various groups selling their manufactured narratives. But would love to get your thoughts and see more hard evidence.

  3. Feeling stories reminded me of this SNL Cold Open (https://youtu.be/Z8UZn7PmyXc) which at some point contains the hilarious line:

    “You can’t dismiss that idea simply because it isn’t true and sounds insane. In fact, let’s add that to our list of “Feel Facts,” which aren’t technically facts but they just feel true.”

Continue the discussion at the Epsilon Theory Forum

Participants

Avatar for bhunt Avatar for Landvermesser Avatar for huberthoran Avatar for Zenzei

The Daily Zeitgeist

ET Zeitgeist: Raccoons Never Sleep

By Ben Hunt | May 28, 2021 | 5 Comments

Lemonade (LMND) isn’t just an insurance company. No, no … they’re an AI Company! ™.

Plus Chamath is up to his old tricks.

I hate raccoons.

Inflation as Ad Campaign

By Ben Hunt | May 24, 2021 | 0 Comments

An ET Pack member sent me this. Anyone else come across ads that directly call out inflation expectations? Would love to collect more screenshots like…

Many People Are Saying … Bitcoin is Art

By Ben Hunt | May 24, 2021 | 0 Comments

The Bitcoin Is Art thesis that I put out back in 2015 (The Effete Rebellion of Bitcoin) and recently put forward again (In Praise of…

The Zeitgeist – 4.8.2019

By Rusty Guinn | April 8, 2019 | 7 Comments

Today’s Monday Zeitgeist is all about book report analyses, central bank common knowledge, a new form of home finance in which you make principal payments over time, multi-level-marketing surprises again, and believability.

The Weekend Zeitgeist (3.31 – 4.6.2019)

By Rusty Guinn | April 6, 2019 | 3 Comments

It’s the weekend, which means it’s a (mostly) finance-free zone on The Zeitgeist. This week-in-review gives us a glimpse into purchases of fine art, the comedic stylings of David Brooks, the continued relevance of Marvin Gaye, a marketing word salad and a solemn hymn to solemn hymns.

The Zeitgeist – 4.5.2019

By Ben Hunt | April 5, 2019 | 10 Comments

March wage growth came in at 3.2% today, which is being described by everyone in financial media as “muted”.

Kinda like the Disney flacks telling us that Blue Will Smith is “fine”. It’s a different genie, but still.

As the immortal line in The Outlaw Josey Wales would have it, “Don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining.” Just another day in the Zeitgeist.

DISCLOSURES
This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.