Office Hours is an hour long Zoom call we have on Friday’s from 2-3pm ET. The event is exclusive to Epsilon Theory members and is a great way to hear Ben’s thoughts on markets, politics, and current events. Every Monday I post a brief recap of the previous OH. This is not a transcription of the call and doesn’t cover everything. But it does outline the main conversations we had.
Before this was posted on the ET Forum, but we’re moving it to the front page so more people can see the recap and understand the opportunities of Office Hours.
These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 7/22/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.
We started our call by looking at some of the signs of an impending recession. Sure you can always wait for Ben or your preferred news source to point them out, but why wait. For example, look at the Service and Manufacturing PMI surveys to see what the readings look like. 50+ means business is expanding, anything lower means business is contracting. Ben thinks this is a pretty good indicator of an incoming recession. What do you think? What are some of the signals that you pay attention to?
A few months ago Ben said his spidey sense was tingling. That what was happening in the economy was becoming systemic and at the center of the cracks was Europe. The problem is in the banks and the problem with the banks is that they’re a monetary union without being a fiscal union. To elaborate, it’s harder for Italian banks to fund themselves and function as a bank than German banks. It’s the original sin of the European Union. They can’t use exchange rates to adjust their economy because they’re all stuck with the Euro.
We’d love to hear your thoughts on these ideas and hope that you’ll join us next time. If you haven’t already, sign up to access the Forum and Office Hours.