ET Pro Geopolitical Conflict Monitor

Risk Analysis in the Golden Age of Central Bankers

By Ben Hunt | June 9, 2014 | 0 Comments

When I was a little kid we had a sand box. It was a quicksand box. I was an only child … eventually. – Steven…

The Minsky Moment Meme

By Ben Hunt | June 8, 2014 | 0 Comments

That’s not how it works. That’s not how any of this works. – Esurance “Beatrice” commercial There’s a wonderful commercial in heavy rotation on American television,…

When Does the Story Break?

By Ben Hunt | May 25, 2014 | 0 Comments

Margaret Bourke-White took this photo of the Garment District in 1930. Every single person on the street is wearing a hat. How did THAT behavior change over time? How did the common knowledge that All Men Wear Hats change?

Answer: the Common Knowledge Game.

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Equity Volatility-of-Volatility Falls to All-Time Low

By Ben Hunt | May 12, 2014 | 0 Comments

1M implied volatility on the VIX fell to an all-time low last week. Generally speaking, this means that options on short-term market volatility increasing have…

All that Glitters

By Ben Hunt | May 9, 2014 | 0 Comments

I’ve received a lot of questions over the past few weeks about Russia and the Ukraine, and why I don’t include this flashpoint in my…

The Risk Trilogy

By Ben Hunt | May 4, 2014 | 0 Comments

A trilogy is a pretty abstract notion. You can apply it to almost any three things.  – Jonathan Demme Mozart: So then you like it?…

Core Curriculum

By Ben Hunt | April 28, 2014 | 0 Comments

I distributed this Epsilon Theory reading list last summer, but it never made it to the website. Given the volume of requests I receive for…

The Business of Epsilon Theory

By Ben Hunt | April 23, 2014 | 0 Comments

I started the Epsilon Theory project nine months ago with the publication of a “Manifesto” and an email to a few hundred friends and colleagues.…

The Adaptive Genius of Rigged Markets

By Ben Hunt | April 20, 2014 | 0 Comments

Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was – Talking Heads, “Once in…

Beta Earthquake

By Ben Hunt | April 13, 2014 | 0 Comments

One of the things I like to keep my eye on when I’m puzzling out what’s going on in the market are the specific company…