Epsilon Theory In Full
The soul of Epsilon Theory is our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. These are the print-and-take-home-for the weekend notes that made Epsilon Theory what it is today.
Buck Finemann, seventy two years old. Cantankerous old geezer. No-one liked him much, but they allowed him to play poker with them once a week…
Det. Gregory: Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention? Holmes: To the curious incident of the dog in…
Instead of a long-form note this Sunday, I thought I’d write a briefer note in advance of this Friday’s jobs report. I’ll be back next…
There was a clear short-term Narrative developed in the financial media last week creating a focal point at 102 in the Yen/USD exchange rate. The…
There has to be a middle ground between being a Cynic and a Fool, some way of playing the game without losing one’s soul. Recognizing that all of us human animals, including me and including you, are playing multiple multi-level games … well, that seems like a good start to me.
To lose one parent, Mr. Worthing, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness. – Oscar Wilde, “The Importance of Being…
Well, Dick, it’s got a good beat and you can dance to it. – standard response to Dick Clark’s “how do you rate this song”…
The most effective alpha-generating strategies are, technically speaking, parasites. I say this with love and admiration.
In 1837 on page 36 of his so-called “B” notebook, Charles Darwin wrote the words “I think” followed by the first depiction of an evolutionary tree.
The rest, as they say, is history,
I went to the Democratic Convention as a journalist, and returned as a cold-blooded revolutionary. – Hunter S. Thompson Some people will say that words…
A few observations on what to look for in the language of the FOMC announcement tomorrow from a game theoretic perspective. Ever since Mario Draghi…
The Fed is now playing the Common Knowledge game openly and directly, making public statements through their media intermediaries to tell you how ALL market…
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH WAR IS PEACE. – George Orwell, “1984” SECRETS ARE LIES SHARING IS CARING PRIVACY IS THEFT. – Dave Eggers, “The Circle”…
One of the more painful lessons in investing is that the prudent investor (or ‘value investor’ if you prefer) almost invariably must forego plenty of…
If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. – Barack Obama Of course, one objective of both traditional and nontraditional policy…
You don’t know what fear is. But you’ll see. It’s catching, it’s catching like small pox! And once you get it, it’s for life! So…
Recent papers written by Fed functionaries and the attendant media attention serve as a reminder of the academic and bureaucratic capture of the Fed. More…
I know. You know I know. I know you know I know. We know Henry knows, and Henry knows we know it. We’re a knowledgeable…
There are two sides to the Epsilon Theory coin — looking at market-shaping current events through the lens of game theory and history, and looking…
The central banks of the West announced today that their temporary swap lines would be made permanent. Like QE itself, the meaning of this emergency…