Inflation Monitor – 8.31.2019

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Access the PDF version of the ET Pro monitor slides here.

Access the underlying Excel data here.


  • We observed a curious combination for inflation narratives in August – a sharp drop in attention coupled with a sharp rise in cohesion
  • We believe that the drop in attention reflects an even further erosion in focus by investors on inflation.
  • We attribute this drop in large part to the rapid acceleration of attention to central bank policy narratives and continued peak levels of attention to trade and tariffs.
  • The increase in narrative cohesion reflects the increasingly universal discussion of inflation as being ‘non-existent’ or ‘a challenge’ to create.
  • Coupled with a rise in our fiat news measure, we believe that the equity market correction in August led to an increase in advocacy journalism – masquerading as news – arguing for stronger central bank action with ‘weak inflation’ as a justification.
  • This remains an active narrative.

Narrative Map

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

Narrative Attention Map

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

Narrative Attention


Narrative Cohesion


Fiat News Index


Narrative Sentiment


Key Articles

The Danger of Plunging Interest Rates and Delayed Buying [Bloomberg]

If Trump Causes a Recession, How Severe Will It Be? [Bloomberg]

MMT may be Democrats’ economic cure, but only Trump got the memo [Reuters]

Negative Mortgages Set Another Milestone in a No-Rate World [Bloomberg]

Argentinas Macri says inflation rising, central bank props up peso [Reuters]

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