The Global Scrum
I think the scrum is a great metaphor for what’s happening everywhere in the world right now, not just in Washington DC for the domestic US politica…
Category: In Summary
The Swallows Return to Capistrano
The Wall Street year-ahead "outlook notes" are like the swallows returning to Capistrano ... next year will be a stock-picker’s market, and we shoul…
The Iranian Maginot Line
I thought Israel was the country with the Maginot Line – in the form of the Iron Dome missile defense system – and that the Phony War would resolv…
The Maginot Line of Commercial Banking
What we have today is maximum complacency around financial system risk because everyone always prepares for the last war.
We have built a Maginot Lin…
So What Now What?
What happened over the weekend happened. There’s nothing to be done about it now, and I think the last thing you want to do is sell into it today. B…
Lessons of a Short Seller: Navigating the Great Ravine without an ISDA
Recorded on July 24, this webinar explores how a long-only, long-term investor or advisor can protect a portfolio through a tail-risk market event wit…
The New ET Pro Website is Here!
I’m thrilled to announce the launch of a total revamp of the ET Pro website, now incorporating the ET Pro Dashboard – a direct window into our ‘…
Lessons of a Short Seller: Navigating the Great Ravine without an ISDA
New webinar scheduled!
Lessons of a Short Seller: Navigating the Great Ravine without an ISDA
Wednesday, July 24
4:00 pm EDT
Unemployment Enters the Conversation
Big change in our dominant central bank and monetary policy narratives. For the first time in years, unemployment is at the top of the network mind.
Four Roads to the Great Ravine (June 26, 2024)
1) US election spurs fiscal deficit
2) Phony War between Israel and Iran gets real
3) Preventive war between US and China over tech embargo
4) New GFC…
The Triple Systemic Risk Thesis
My spidey-sense for major systemic risk has sounded an internal alarm three times in my investment career. Once in Q4 2007 over alt-a and subprime RMB…
PIK Financing Narratives
I continue to feel like it’s 2007 all over again, and I’m looking forward to talking this Friday about how we prepare for the 2008 corollary.
It’s the Funding, Stupid
Here’s the question we need to ask in order to evaluate the systemic risks of a fundamental change in the provision of credit to the US economy, fro…
Godzilla vs. King Kong
What’s happening today is not only a war between commercial banks and asset managers over credit provision to large US companies, it’s also a war …
Looking for an Excuse to Cut
The Fed is looking for an excuse to cut, and as soon as they have that excuse, they will.
There are two possible narrative excuses, one immediate and…
Private Credit Update
My spidey-sense is no longer tingling like crazy about the overall rise in scale and scope of private credit. It's a profound shift in the core social…
Iran’s Attack was a Neutron Bomb in Narrative-World
It doesn’t happen often, but every few years there’s a real-world shock that leaves the old narrative structures standing but eliminates all the p…
The Last Hurrah
I think everyone in Washington and on Wall Street is in the bag for nominal growth (ie, number-go-up) by any means necessary through November.
Washin…
That which we call QE by any other name would smell as sweet
That which we call QE by any other name would smell as sweet.
I think if Shakespeare were reincarnated as a Fintwit luminary, that’s how he’d rew…
Two Quick Narrative Observations
I got some more color from Rusty on the shift in our Narrative Monitors this month from hawkish to dovish central bank narratives, and I thought it wa…