Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. All the king’s horses and all the king’s men Couldn’t put Humpty together again. Brexit is a Bear Stearns moment, not a Lehman moment. That’s not to diminish what’s happening (markets felt like death in March, 2008), but this isn’t the event to …
A quick email to Epsilon Theory readers on what’s happening in Europe, because we’ve seen this movie before. On August 2, 2012 Mario Draghi gave the most disastrous ECB press conference of all time. The market anticipation was enormous leading up to the event, as this was the moment where the ECB would unveil the …
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. – Vladimir Lenin (1870 – 1924) In 1914, Europe had arrived at a point in which every country except Germany was afraid of the present, and Germany was afraid of the future. – Sir Edward Grey (1862 – 1933) Last week’s email, …
Man in Black: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right … and who is dead. – “The Princess Bride” (1987) Time is a game played beautifully by children. – Heraclitus of Ephesus (535 – 475 …
#1) Here are the most relevant recent notes for an Epsilon Theory perspective on the underlying political and market risks in Europe: “The Red King” (July 14, 2014) and “Now There’s Something You Don’t See Every Day, Chauncey” (Dec. 16, 2014). #2) Markets reacted positively to last Thursday’s announcement because Draghi doubled the amount of QE that he …
Narrator: Well, today we find our heroes flying along smoothly… Rocket J. Squirrel: Flying along smoothly? Bullwinkle J. Moose: You’re just looking at the picture sideways! Rocket J. Squirrel: Actually it’s like this! Narrator: Oh… OH GOOD HEAVENS! Today we find our heroes plunging straight down toward disaster at supersonic speed! Bullwinkle J. Moose: That’s …
Read moreNow There’s Something You Don’t See Every Day, Chauncey
The strong do what they can, while the weak suffer what they must. — Thucydides, “The History of the Peloponnesian War” (395 BC) Global growth is really bad! Hooray! That was the verdict of US markets yesterday, as the Fed minutes “revealed” (to use the breathless phrasing of mainstream financial media) a “growing concern” with …
The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves. – William Shakespeare, “Julius Caesar” (1599) In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. – Yogi Berra, (b. 1925) There is one great mystery in the high falutin’ circles of the Fed, ECB, and IMF today. Why is …