Things That Go Bump In The Night
Everyone reading this note has, at one time or another, gotten scared about markets and decided to hedge their professional portfolio or personal acco…
Category: Adaptive Investing
Post-Fed Follow-Up
A quick post-Fed follow-up to “Tell My Horse”, the best-received Epsilon Theory note to date (thank you!). I’ll jump right into what I’ve got …
Tell My Horse
So yeah, I’m overweight and I need to get more sleep. I’m not happy about the market, and I’m anxious about living up to my obligations to my pa…
Westworld
If political parties in Western democracies were stocks, we’d be talking today about the structural bear market that has gripped that sector. Show m…
The Art of the Probe
We often write about Common Knowledge - the game of markets. It's time to talk about how to play it. So how can you be a better game-player? What are …
You Had One Job
Every dog needs a job, and every investment does, too. No single dog can be all things to all people, and neither can a single investment. Nor can any…
Anthem!
I want to be a patriot again. I want to be a fundamental investor again. It won’t ever be exactly like it was before, but that’s okay. A renewed f…
Cat’s Cradle
Negative rates are ice-nine. If you don’t know what ice-nine is, read the book. Spoiler alert: the world ends. TIAA will end the voluntary expense…
Optical Illusion / Optical Truth
Portion of original dot map by Dr. John Snow, the founding father of epidemiology, showing the clusters of cholera cases in the London epidemic of…
The Placebo Effect
BOTOX® is the only FDA-approved, preventive treatment that is injected by a doctor every 12 weeks for adults with Chronic Migraine (15 or more headache…
My Passion is Puppetry
Campaign Company Launch Date “Flo” Progressive Insurance 2008 “Rhetorical Question” “Happier Than A … ” “Did You Know?” “It’s What You Do” GEICO 2009 2012…
Hobson’s Choice
I'd like an omelet, plain, and a chicken salad sandwich on wheat toast, no mayonnaise, no butter, no lettuce, and a cup of coffee. Now all you have to…
Snikt
As longtime Epsilon Theory readers know, I’m a big comic book fan. One of the joys of a comic done well is the effective representation…
You Can Either Surf, or You Can Fight
Kilgore: Smell that? You smell that? Lance: What? Kilgore: Napalm, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. – Apocalypse Now (1979) Hello, hello, hello,…
Storm Warning
Unfortunately for mariners, the total amount of wave energy in a storm does not rise linearly with wind speed, but to its fourth power. The…
I Know It Was You, Fredo
Sen. Geary: Hey, Freddie, where did you find this place? Fredo Corleone: Johnny Ola told me about this place. He brought me here. I didn’t…
Rounders
Mike McDermott: In “Confessions of a Winning Poker Player,” Jack King said, “Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but…
Season of the Glitch
When I look over my shoulder What do you think I see? Some other cat lookin’ over His shoulder at me. – Donovan, “Season of…
When the Story Breaks
The Three Types of Fear: The Gross-out: the sight of a severed head tumbling down a flight of stairs. It’s when the lights go out…
The New TVA
War is too important to be left to the generals. – Georges Clemenceau (1841 -1929) Competition has been shown to be useful up to a…