The Epsilon Theory Archive

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Mark Twain said that, or Abraham Lincoln depending on what corner of the internet you find yourself on any given day. Likewise, there are common themes, topics and subjects that run throughout the Epsilon Theory archive. All of our writing is categorized, tagged and organized to be easily accessible, but beware: your search for truth on one matter may very well lead you down any number of rabbit holes (and we hope that it does).

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Two negative narratives have derailed the ebullient markets of January — Inflation and Trade War. While I think both are here to stay, I’ve trained the Narrative Machine on inflation first because it’s more critical for investors. Here are the results, and to quote Game of Thrones — Inflation is Coming. Read more »

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Is Volatility Back?

On this special episode of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we share an excerpt from a conference call we recorded on February 13 discussing our thoughts on the market selloff earlier in the month. Listen »

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Most investors think that fundamentals are sound. Most investors think that other investors think that last week's correction was about vol-selling, vol-targeting and algos run amok. But neither of those is the real story. The real story is that everybody knows that everybody knows that inflation will change the way portfolios are built and managed. Read more »

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The public unmasking of Harvey Weinstein as a serial rapist (that’s the word, people) is an archetypical play of the Common Knowledge Game. How does private knowledge become – not public knowledge – but common knowledge? Common knowledge is something that we all believe everyone else believes. Read more »

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Failure to Inflate

Ben and his guest, Peter Cecchini, Chief Market Strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, discuss the complexities inherent in applying the principles of modern monetary policy across all economies, developed or otherwise. Listen »

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The Jukebox Theory

Ben shares his thoughts on the inflation narrative and how to make politics more transparent and engaging. Listen »

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Back by popular demand, it’s the Mid-Summer Epsilon Theory Mailbag! Read more »

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The barge of monetary policy has turned around and embarked on a tightening course. The question now is how fast it will move. Read more »

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