Value still works in markets warped by the Three-Body Problem, but works differently. Required reading for anyone puzzled by value's underperformance over the past NINE YEARS. Read more »
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Mark Twain said that, or Abraham Lincoln depending on what corner of the internet you find yourself on any given day. Likewise, there are common themes, topics and subjects that run throughout the Epsilon Theory archive. All of our writing is categorized, tagged and organized to be easily accessible, but beware: your search for truth on one matter may very well lead you down any number of rabbit holes (and we hope that it does).
Choose one or multiple criteria to find just the posts you want:
Many of the memes that drive our political behaviors inherently push us toward Competitive Games and tribalism. Resisting these memes means losing both arguments and credibility. Rusty argues that a willingness to lose is exactly what it will take to fix our broken political dialogue. Read more »
This is Part 1 of the multi-part Three-Body Alpha series, introduced in Rusty's recent Investing with Icarus note. The Series seeks to explore how the increasing transformation of fundamental and economic data into abstractions may influence strategies for investing — and how it should influence investors accessing them. Read more »
Most investors think that fundamentals are sound. Most investors think that other investors think that last week's correction was about vol-selling, vol-targeting and algos run amok. But neither of those is the real story. The real story is that everybody knows that everybody knows that inflation will change the way portfolios are built and managed. Read more »
In a two-body market, the interactions of fundamental data and prices are generally predictable. In a three-body market, the epsilon — investor behaviors in response to narratives — exerts a powerful gravitational force which must be considered when building a portfolio. Read more »
Costs in investing are one of the big "Things That Matter", but the decisions you make about risk, diversification and behavior are all going to impact your portfolio more than the expenses you are paying on funds or to your financial advisor. Read more »