ET Origins
Lets Start At The Very Beginning
We've written a lot of notes over the years. A lot of great ideas and terminology has been created and that can make it hard to dive right in. So here's what we consider to be the essentials. The notes that you need to read to understand Epsilon Theory. Most of our recent grander and more complicated ideas have their humble origins in these earlier notes.
A Very Good Place To Start
Epsilon Theory Manifesto
By Ben Hunt
|June 1, 2013
Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history, and behavioral analysis. Epsilon Theory is my attempt to lay the foundation for such a perspective.
Through the Looking Glass, or … This is the Red Pill
By Ben Hunt
|June 16, 2013
The first ET note focused on Information Theory.
It Was Barzini All Along
By Ben Hunt
|September 8, 2013
“Tattaglia is a pimp. He never could have outfought Santino. But I didn’t know until this day that it was Barzini all along.” - Don Vito Corleone
Same with Emerging Market growth narratives. It was Developed Market monetary policy all along.
The Narrative Machine
By Ben Hunt
|August 17, 2016
"So, in the interests of survival, they trained themselves to be agreeing machines instead of thinking machines. All their minds had to do was to discover what other people were thinking, and then they thought that, too." - Kurt Vonnegut
If there’s a better description of modern markets, I have yet to find it. We have become agreeing machines.
Magical Thinking
By Ben Hunt
|September 1, 2016
The problem with magical thinking run amok and its perpetuation of a fantasy world is that sooner or later the dream of the delusional king becomes a real world nightmare for real world people. It’s time to wake up.
Virtue Signaling, or … Why Clinton is in Trouble
By Ben Hunt
|September 29, 2016
Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will impose. Trump, on the other hand … I think he breaks us. Maybe he already has. He breaks us because he transforms every game we play as a country — from our domestic social games to our international security games — from a Coordination Game to a Competition Game.
Too Clever By Half
By Ben Hunt
|February 5, 2018
The inevitable result of financial innovation gone awry, which it ALWAYS does, is that it ALWAYS ends up empowering the State. When too clever by half people misplay the meta-game, that’s all the excuse the State needs to come swooping in and crush them, just as they are with Bitcoin today they did with Bear and Lehman in 2008. Installment #10 from Notes from the Field.
Things Fall Apart (Part 1)
By Ben Hunt
|August 8, 2018
Part 1 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today's note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the decline and fall of the American Empire.
The Long Now, Pt. 1 - Tick-Tock
By Ben Hunt
|July 31, 2019
The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children.
We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now are costless, when in fact they cost us … everything.
Tick-tock.