Whom Fortune Favors: Things that Matter #1, Pt. 2
July 27, 2017·0 comments·narrative
The portfolio your advisor recommends is probably too conservative. The investors you admire most are taking risks they don't talk about. The gap between what experts publicly endorse and what they actually do with their own money reveals something troubling about how we calculate risk.
• Most investment risk models assume a world that doesn't exist. They treat past volatility as reliably predictive and ignore how big losses compound backward through time, permanently altering outcomes. A 65% drawdown isn't just a blip to recover from; it changes the math of everything that comes after.
• Wealthy investors and money managers operate at radically different risk levels in their private accounts. Twenty, 25, or 30% annualized volatility is standard in personal portfolios, yet these same professionals offer clients something far tamer. This isn't duplicity so much as recognition that index-level risk doesn't maximize returns for long horizons.
• With perfect hindsight over 50 years, the mathematically optimal portfolio would have carried 634% leverage and 44% volatility. Most aggressive investor portfolios today operate at roughly triple the typical equity market volatility. The implication is clear: if maximizing returns matters, conventional approaches are leaving enormous returns untaken.
• The moment you increase portfolio risk, your exposure to unpredictable catastrophic events rises disproportionately. A 20% increase in volatility often means a 50% or greater increase in tail risk. This is why diversification and adaptive strategies aren't optional extras; they're the load-bearing walls of any portfolio that wants to take real risk.
• The difference between what actually happens to your wealth and what the models predicted becomes everything. In a world where events don't follow patterns and correlations break apart, the investor who adapts matters far more than the investor who picked the right asset classes at the start.
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