The ET Election Index - May 2019
June 6, 2019·3 comments·et election index
Media outlets are using remarkably consistent language patterns when discussing certain candidates, while treating others with wild inconsistency. This cohesion isn't random. It reveals which candidates journalists have abstracted into political "ideas" and which ones they're still treating as individuals with varying policy positions.
• Bernie Sanders has achieved near-unanimous language consistency across outlets spanning left to right. Coverage treats him as a singular archetype rather than a candidate with evolving positions. No other major candidate comes close to this narrative unanimity, suggesting something deeper than simple disagreement about his policy merits.
• Pete Buttigieg's coverage collapsed into Sanders-level unanimity in a single month, suggesting that narrative cohesion can crystallize rapidly when outlets align on a candidate's perceived role in the primary. This wasn't driven by new information or polling shifts, but by a shift in how outlets talked about him.
• Biden's media narrative is fracturing despite his polling strength, while candidates positioned as challengers to centrist politics receive more favorable sentiment. The alignment between a candidate's coverage and the broader election narrative doesn't follow the logic of electability or current viability.
• Female candidates receive significantly more negative language than their male counterparts, even in articles explicitly addressing gender bias in coverage. This contradiction suggests the bias isn't accidental or the result of deliberate editorial policy, but something more structural in how outlets frame certain candidates.
• The central election narrative across all major outlets is clustering around social justice, climate, and economic fairness issues, which directly advantages candidates already associated with these platforms. What gets discussed about "the election" isn't neutral ground.
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Comments
Looking forward to following this election index into 2020. Do you have the ability to retroactively analyze the 2016 election as well? I would be very interested in seeing the media analysis as compared to the election polls month-to-month. If I recall correctly, 538 was spot on in the 2012 prediction but wrong in 2016 (only the USC/L.A. Times poll was correct in predicting a Trump win, I believe).
That’s an interesting idea - I think we should be able to. Would need to confirm that we weren’t corrupting the old articles with any modern metadata.
I would think Sanders coverage has the most consistent cohesion because his message/narrative has been the same for 20-30 years or at least consistent. The rest of field seems overly swayed by the polls of the day and tailor their message accordingly. As with any shiny new object, Beto was hoped he could be the next Obama. He’s not.
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