The ET Election Index - May 2019
June 6, 2019·3 comments·et election index
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This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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Comments
Looking forward to following this election index into 2020. Do you have the ability to retroactively analyze the 2016 election as well? I would be very interested in seeing the media analysis as compared to the election polls month-to-month. If I recall correctly, 538 was spot on in the 2012 prediction but wrong in 2016 (only the USC/L.A. Times poll was correct in predicting a Trump win, I believe).
That’s an interesting idea - I think we should be able to. Would need to confirm that we weren’t corrupting the old articles with any modern metadata.
I would think Sanders coverage has the most consistent cohesion because his message/narrative has been the same for 20-30 years or at least consistent. The rest of field seems overly swayed by the polls of the day and tailor their message accordingly. As with any shiny new object, Beto was hoped he could be the next Obama. He’s not.
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