There for the Right Reasons
March 29, 2016·0 comments·emails
There's a fundamental tension at the heart of modern investing. Markets are rallying on narratives that don't reflect the real economy, perpetuated by policymakers with their own interests. Yet investors are expected to participate while pretending these narratives represent genuine recovery and rational markets. The contradiction creates an impossible choice: stay out and miss gains, or get in while holding your nose at the mechanism driving it.
- Markets climb on worry, not on recovery. The observable pattern isn't that fundamentals improved. It's that narratives about policy and recovery shifted, regardless of whether the underlying reality changed. The question becomes whether narrative alone can sustain movement indefinitely.
- Systemic risk has gone quiet, but that doesn't mean the system is sound. When antennae for structural instability aren't quivering, ordinary market dynamics dominate. Yet the absence of warning signals doesn't guarantee the stage beneath these actors won't eventually collapse.
- Professional incentives and public trust have diverged from reality. Central bankers, politicians, and their financial apologists benefit from maintaining certain stories about the economy. The mechanism isn't hidden anymore. What's changed is whether participants admit to seeing it.
- Participating doesn't require believing the narrative is true. Some investors pretend to believe in the legitimacy of what's driving markets. Others recognize the performance without moral attachment to its justification. One approach acknowledges reality more honestly than the other.
- The real question isn't whether to get in, but when the actors will be forced off the stage. If systemic risk eventually resurfaces, if the narrative breaks down, if the mechanics shift, the timing matters more than moral clarity about participating today. That's what separates surviving the shift from being caught when it happens.
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This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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