The Words Behind the War

Good article Ben- one additional thought I have is that the decision to go to war against Iran could have been made even before april- Iran had already tried to assassinate Trump before his corronation.

This always seemed a bit of a suicidal attempt on a very personally vengeful figure that doesn’t quite make sense unless they had reasons to believe he was bad for their regime.

Plus it’s not like he didn’t assassinate miltiary leaders on his first term and trying his best to escalate as much as he could have done back then.

Who know’s what thoughts lie in his head. But maybe he was following the tried and true playbook of republican presidents before him as a war time president being the best for ratings and one where he gets to play the biggest hands in the geopolitical card game. Who knows?

Very interesting. Does this have implications for how the Trump administration works in other areas as well? Meaning, a ‘conventional’ critique of Trump and his policies is that he is chaotic and changes his mind frequently. But you are laying out the case that this particular major decision was made months ago and stuck to, and that a ‘normal’ mobilizing narrative support operation followed, even as Trump’s public statements during that time period reinforced the ‘Trump is a chaotic loose cannon’ critique (which I think based on your analysis now supports the ‘no, he is doing this on purpose to keep people off balance’ counter argument).

Might a similar dynamic be taking place with Trump’s tariff plan (or lack thereof)? Meaning, he actually does have a grand plan and end goals about what he wants to achieve, and the constant verbal threats, changes to rates, attacks, feints, etc etc are designed to throw people off balance, rather than a sign of internal chaos and uncertainty?

I think he personally doesn’t have any plan that doesn’t include him and his dynasty gaining more power or more money. His actions via Trump shit coins where he collects billions in bribe money and Qatari aeroplanes shows his incentives quite clearly.

However all of this theatrics and brazen kleptocracy can hide strategic intent for the people pupetting his actions- he has effectively democratised US foreign policy via his shitcoin, so you could theoretically create a shadow cabinet that could get the US aparatus to do their biddings via capital flows. E.g. Netanahyu doesn’t have to worry about optics if he can effectively leverage Trump into helping him in his war via Trump shitcoins.

So imo, there is definitely people behind him who have plans. They could be using him as an “useful idiot” for their plans to supplant prior archetypes of morality and fundemental rights of human beings, he’s a very good lightening rod for the hate even though he can’t do anything if people don’t follow his orders.

I don’t think it was ever really a question that he didn’t have a plan, it was just whether these plans were ever going to be benefitting the american public or going to be trillions in tax cuts to the ultra net worth individuals who installed him or the countries who were willing to bribe him.

Another interesting thing about “Iran is days away from having a nuke” is that it doesn’t appear to move much at all after the reporting from the NYT that they had reached the 60% enrichment threshold, but that it does move along with more general stories about hostilities with Iran. Shows the disconnect between the underlying factual nature of the evidence vs its utility in mobilizing support for war.

All lot of conjecture - everywhere trying to get my attention on this matter…persuade me.

The only questions i have for which i don’t find any real factual discussion:
-what is 60% enriched uranium good for? Is it necessary for nuclear power? A nuclear submarine/ship? Xray machines? Is it a product they produce in order to sell?

-How long does it take to go from unenriched to 60%? 60% to further level of refinement, say 90%?
-What’s the purpose of further enrichment, beyond 60%?
-Is it “normal” to put the enrichment process in a remote area way under ground?

I have no idea.

Seems like answers to those questions may provide a better picture as Iran’s purpose with all of this and why all the fuss especially over the last 15 years (obama deal, secret cash shipments, Trump ripping up agreement, biden re signing agreement, bunker busters…)

Managing chaotic situations might be a strength for him, so he gravitates in that direction. IMO everything needs to be looked at on a case-by-case basis. Sometimes there is a grand plan, and sometimes there isn’t.
It’s to his benefit of calculating for personal remuneration to keep us guessing, which media of all types loves to assist us in doing

Nice signature analysis, Ben - love the visual!

Along with the whole “I’ll decide within the next two weeks” head fake, I wonder how Gabbard’s counter-narrative fits into the picture? Calculated unbalancing move? Actual disssent? Or just a sideshow?

Might not even be worth spilling ink if it’s just her swan song.

60% is as close or as far as needed to say Iran is weeks or years away from weapon grade enrichment. It’s meaningless. They have been utilising the ambiguity of their nuclear program in much the same way as Trump is utilising his current Schroedinger’s tariffs. I also am not convinced that if they wanted a nuclear program, they couldn’t have achieved it by now.

Wow.

That helps add to my narrative interpretation of “they all suck most of the time”.
Not requiring the opposite to be true (albeit a strong preference) helps make everything more manageable.

That is many times more enriched than a reactor needs. IIRC yellow cake is about 5%.
Radium is used for medical isotopes.