The Goldfinch in Winter
July 14, 2017·0 comments
Every investment approach has its moment. Value investing blazes gold in summer, then the color drains away. Growth investing takes the stage, then fades. Investors hunting for a strategy that shines in all seasons have been asking the right question for decades. But the answer they find is almost always disappointing.
• Every winning strategy eventually stops working. Not because it fails, but because market conditions shift. The goldfinch doesn't migrate south. It stays and changes color. Value investors waiting for their moment understand this cycle, but understanding doesn't make the waiting easier.
• What works and what feels good have stopped being the same thing. There is a strategy that performs well across different market seasons, but it doesn't produce the rush of conviction or the clarity of narrative. It looks pedestrian. It asks you to hold things that clash with each other.
• Investors need the moments of beauty more than they admit. A portfolio that swoops and glints in unified motion through a rally is intoxicating. A portfolio where half your positions are working against the other half is uncomfortable. Yet one delivers what the other promises.
• The gap between what your portfolio should do and how it should feel has become the real problem. Returns matter less than whether you can sleep at night while holding something unglamorous. Most advisors can't sell clients on boring.
• The question isn't whether a solution exists. It's whether we can live with an answer we don't enjoy. What happens when the only strategy that survives all seasons is the one that never thrills?
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This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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