Tesla Rekt
August 21, 2018·0 comments·In Brief
A bull story doesn't die because the facts changed. It dies when a credible authority declares it dead, and everyone believes that everyone else believes it's dead. On Friday, the SEC transformed a long-running investigation into a moment of common knowledge, and rational actors were forced to abandon positions they may have still believed in.
- The bull case was solid until it wasn't. There was no new scandal, no hidden bad news, just the realization that something investors thought was private was now public knowledge shared by everyone at once.
- Belief about belief matters more than belief itself. Tesla shareholders didn't need to lose faith in the company. They needed to believe that others had lost faith, and that shift alone forces the rational move to exit.
- Authority creates certainty out of ambiguity. When the SEC spoke with regulatory power and prestige, it didn't just add information. It created a unified narrative that couldn't be argued against or nuanced away.
- The bull story is now broken. Not disproven or weakened, but structurally shattered in a way that takes years to recover from, if recovery is even possible.
- What happens when the Missionary speaks? Once common knowledge solidifies around a narrative, the other side has no choice but to exit. The only question becomes how far the unraveling goes.
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