Tell My Horse
June 12, 2017·0 comments·adaptive investing
Everyone in finance knows the market is hollow and controlled. Yet the people most successful at making money are those who embrace the system most completely and stop thinking independently. What happens when the only way to profit is to become someone else's instrument?
• The market rewards surrender. Hedge fund managers are at historic lows in performance versus the broader market, particularly those trying to generate independent, idiosyncratic returns. The ones who are thriving are those who converted to new religions like passive indexing, artificial intelligence, or quantitative trading, rather than holding out for their original strategies.
• Central banks are active traders, not stabilizers. The $14 trillion in central bank assets is actively managed trading portfolio that requires $1-2 trillion in annual purchases just to maintain. This isn't buy-and-hold support for markets; it's constant, massive intervention. The question of what happens when they must eventually unwind remains unanswered.
• The crowding is the trap. Trillions are locked into ETFs and index products that everyone calls "passive" while they're actually expressing completely active bets on sectors, geographies, and factors. This concentration creates a dangerous vulnerability that nobody talks about because there's no career risk in shared crowd risk.
• Wage inflation is coming anyway. Despite central bankers' commitment to preventing it, the populist pendulum swing makes rising wages almost inevitable both in the U.S. and China. When it arrives, the Fed will be forced to tighten and sell, triggering the cascade most people aren't prepared for.
• The system will force a choice most won't make. You can serve the market loas and become prosperous but hollow. Or you can remain independent and endure underperformance and alienation. There's a third option, but it requires something most professionals won't sacrifice to find it.
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This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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