The Epsilon Theory Archive

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Mark Twain said that, or Abraham Lincoln depending on what corner of the internet you find yourself on any given day. Likewise, there are common themes, topics and subjects that run throughout the Epsilon Theory archive. All of our writing is categorized, tagged and organized to be easily accessible, but beware: your search for truth on one matter may very well lead you down any number of rabbit holes (and we hope that it does).

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In the second installment of his Notes from the Road, Rusty writes about what most investors have in common with ...... roadkill. Really? Read more »

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Things Fall Apart (Part 2)

How do things fall apart in a monolithic market? Not with a bang but a whimper. Read more »

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Bayes and the Boreen

Rusty takes us to Ireland, where he begins an exploration of path-dependence and priors in our thinking as investors and citizens. Read more »

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Part 1 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today's note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the decline and fall of the American Empire. Read more »

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It Was You, Charley

Value still works in markets warped by the Three-Body Problem, but works differently. Required reading for anyone puzzled by value's underperformance over the past NINE YEARS. Read more »

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The goal of most Narratives is to to convince you to sit down and shut up. Read more »

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Mental Toughness!

Investing requires mental toughness, but it doesn’t require us to pretend we — or our colleagues — are invincible. Read more »

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Many of the memes that drive our political behaviors inherently push us toward Competitive Games and tribalism. Resisting these memes means losing both arguments and credibility. Rusty argues that a willingness to lose is exactly what it will take to fix our broken political dialogue. Read more »

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The Narrative Machine can help us see the invisible memes that drive our political behaviors. Because you're smart enough to make up your own damn mind. Read more »

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This is Part 1 of the multi-part Three-Body Alpha series, introduced in Rusty's recent Investing with Icarus note. The Series seeks to explore how the increasing transformation of fundamental and economic data into abstractions may influence strategies for investing — and how it should influence investors accessing them. Read more »

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