Rise of the Machines
July 28, 2013·0 comments
Markets appear more liquid and efficient than ever. Yet the machines controlling that liquidity operate on patterns that broke once before and show new signs of strain. The conditions triggering the 2010 Flash Crash haven't been fixed, only multiplied. What happens when the architecture holding everything together encounters something its historical data never anticipated?
• Machines now completely control market liquidity operations. Every transaction that isn't direct human-to-human trade pays a hidden tax to systems that divine intent within milliseconds. Asset managers, high-frequency traders, and market makers all depend on this invisible infrastructure.
• These systems operate with thinner margins and more sensitive trigger fingers than in 2010. The proportion of machine-to-machine transactions has only grown since the Flash Crash. The conditions that caused market seizure are more pronounced now.
• All machine intelligences learned from the same historical playbook. When market patterns shift unusually, especially if machines transact primarily with each other, the systems have no framework to adapt. A small liquidity shock can cascade into paralysis.
• Regulators proposed technical fixes, but these treat symptoms, not the disease. The real problem is outsourcing critical market function to systems that can't think their way out of novel situations the way humans can.
• There's no way to dislodge machines from liquidity operations. The real solution requires the Fed to allow normal market stress to return so human traders come back with real capital. Until then, we're waiting for a wreck on broken tracks.
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