Lehman and the Meta-Game of Trading
September 15, 2018·0 comments·In Brief
A trader was up 20% in 2008, one of the few long-short hedge funds that year. He'd navigated the crisis brilliantly, moved his counterparty risk away from Lehman months before it collapsed, and made genuine money while the system burned. On September 15, 2008, he realized none of this meant he'd been playing the game at all.
- You can be exceptional at the immediate game and completely blind to the larger one. Daily P&L management, portfolio construction, stock picking, risk management within normal parameters. These skills are real and valuable. The author was genuinely skilled at them. But skill at one level of strategic interaction doesn't translate to understanding a different level entirely.
- Avoiding the obvious trap doesn't mean you've understood the real game. The author had transferred his Lehman contracts to JP Morgan, exited Bear Stearns early. He thought he'd been strategic. But defensive positioning isn't the same as meta-game positioning. He'd moved out of one trap without recognizing the larger moment.
- When the system itself becomes the variable, everything changes. Most traders were still calculating daily P&L. The question that actually mattered was: does the entire system collapse or does it survive? If collapse, position doesn't matter. If survival, you want to be massively long. The author recognized this question existed. He didn't actually position for an answer to it.
- Some traders saw a binary moment others missed completely. David Tepper went "balls to the wall" levered long. Warren Buffett sold billions in naked S&P 500 puts. These weren't desperate or contrarian moves. They were meta-game bets. They'd identified the actual game being played and positioned accordingly. The author stayed mired in the immediate game.
- Mastery at one level of the game doesn't protect you from being a noob at another. The author played the best game of his career by traditional measures. He also played the meta-game like someone who doesn't understand that meta-games exist. The uncomfortable question is which level actually determines long-term outcomes, and what you might be missing in your own field.
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