Epsilon Theory – investing and voting seen through the lenses of game theory and history

Reinventing the Financial System

By Marc Rubinstein | June 15, 2021 | 4 Comments

If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.

The Trap of Validation. The Pursuit of Mastery | Bill Stephney & Lawrence Yeo JUST PRESS RECORD

Lawrence Yeo once committed 100 hours to write a single story. He just wanted to know what would happen if he put that much time and effort into something. No expectation, just curiosity.

Bill Stephney, after introducing Chuck D to Rick Rubin (and Hank Shocklee along the way but, don’t let me rabbithole you too on this story), helped manage Def Jam way back at the beginning of the label, where he learned to ask up and comers if they wanted recognition, money, or celebrity status – because they’d have to focus on one of the three. He learned not to have an expectation too, and he let the curiosity guide him.

Which – the external validation, as tempting as it is, of knowing your 100 hour project will succeed or basking in the glory of your status, wealth and fame, always (ALWAYS) succumbs to the internal reality of – did you get what you really wanted?

In Lawrence’s case, it eventually led him away from a career in music, a career on Wall Street, and into a career in writing (first book, “The Inner Compass” out now).

In Bill’s case, it eventually expanded from a career in music, to the business of music in movies, documentaries, and even high education.

The overlap is that the external validation ultimately means nothing, even if it’s where we want to focus. It really is a trap. And these two have both figured out how to stay out of it.

The Downside of More Rational

Eric Markowitz shared this Nassim Taleb quote in The Nightcrawler last weekend and it’s rattling around in my head:

The more rational we become, the more blind we are to our own irrationality.
Nassim Taleb

You can reduce, simplify, and get everything fitting into your head all tidy-like.

All the numbers can add up. The i’s can be dotted and the t’s can look to be crossed.

Maybe it’s damn near perfect after a while.

And all it does is open you up to a bigger disaster.

There’s comfort in living with some mess.

I pretty much expect I am always in a bit of a mess. I don’t like to be surprised by it. The chaos is just there and that’s fine.

For example – I thought I had a whole week of posts scheduled out on Saturday this week.

The Silent Majority: Why the Best Audiences Don’t Talk Back

Engagement’s a trap. Or maybe it’s a myth. All I know is – it’s real, but it’s also not reality, and if you’re confused, you’re onto a truth that will set you (and whatever you’re creating) free.

Mike Cessario is the CEO/Founder of Liquid Death and, no matter how dumb you feel like the company is (or how amused you are by a CEO who wears Deicide shirts), he knows a thing or two about reaching an audience and inspiring action.

If you’re obsessed with comments, likes, and engagement rates, I need you to see this:

90% of people on social are passive observers who do not engage by clicking like buttons or posting comments. They treat social media the same way they treat their television: they sit back and watch the circus.
Mike Cessario, CEO/Founder at Liquid Death

Marketing extraordinaire Jack Appleby put that idea in my inbox this week (he was probably wearing a Taking Back Sunday shirt). It came on the same day I happened to be listening to Bob Pittman (MTV, Nickelodeon, basically the creator of my entire childhood education, and current CEO of iHeartMedia) get interviewed by Rick Rubin (who… same pitch). Bob was talking about the Spotify vs. radio stats and – just read this too:

Ad supported Spotify or ad supported Pandora reach about 20% of America. We reach 90%.

More people listen to the radio today than did 10 years ago or 20 years ago.
Bob Pittman, iHeartMedia CEO

Sunday Music: Dibbs, War Pigs, The Sound Of Worlds Colliding

I am impossibly betting that sometime in 2002 I saw Atmosphere on the God Loves Ugly tour in the 300ish person room below Pearl Street in Northampton, MA. If you know otherwise, or if you gave me a ride there, or whatever, feel free to clarify. The internet has failed me in this regard.

And, more specifically, I saw Atmosphere, a bunch of Rhymesayers artists, and Mr. Dibbs.

DJs have always been fascinating to me. Mr. Dibbs included. The curation and choices and room-reading (and occasionally lack of room reading) fascinates me.

It was probably all the years in high school I spent playing for real money in cover bands in bars, relative to the time I spent playing for minimal door money in original bands in indie/all-ages clubs.

Getting a room to appreciate an original is really hard. It’s your art and it’s being judged. LIVE.

Now, copying an oldie but a goodie in a cover band, while easier and you have better odds of achieving audience approval, you still need to do something to either make it your own or strive for the level of mastery the original artist had.

I won’t turn this into a rant on my hatred for lazy cover bands. They exist.

But, I will take this back to my admiration for DJs who don’t have to play cover songs because they can play the source material. The best DJs can even make something special out of it. Originality in DJ routines is magic to me (and massively undercelebrated).

Playing With Networking (Weekly Recap August 8, 2025)

Name Your Critic

The most paralyzing creative fear isn’t real criticism – it’s the imaginary collective judgment we carry in our heads. James Clear’s insight cuts through the fog: when you worry about “what other people will think,” you’re usually not worried about any specific person’s opinion. The moment you name the actual critic, you often realize you don’t respect their judgment anyway. This simple practice of naming your critic dissolves most creative paralysis because cruel critics usually reveal themselves to be people whose opinions don’t actually matter to your work.

The Raw File Approach to Networking: Morgan Ranstrom Returns TO JUST PRESS RECORD

We have a compression problem. AI and algorithms compress human experience the same way Spotify compresses audio files – technically functional but missing crucial data. Morgan Ranstrom’s insight about treating genuine conversation as “raw file” networking versus algorithmic compression explains why so many professional connections feel hollow. Real relationships preserve all the data: pauses, tangents, cross-industry pollination, and moments where ideas actually compound in real-time. Your Personal Archive matters because you’re building an uncompressed library of human experiences while everyone else accepts compressed files.

Grow Your Network: Morgan Ranstrom Is A Purposefully Thoughtful Advisor and Musician

Everything compounds – for you or against you. Morgan’s framework for intentional living centers on recognizing that neutrality doesn’t exist in personal development. His decision to trade Friday nights for Saturday mornings captures the profound challenge of right living: making choices today that your future self will thank you for, even when present benefits aren’t visible. The Napoleon tree story illuminates legacy thinking – planting trees you’ll never see requires ego reduction but creates the most lasting impact because it frees you from needing immediate validation.

Grow Your Network: Rupert Mitchell Is A Market Translator Who Turns Chaos Into Clarity

The greatest competitive advantage isn’t being in the thick of every battle, it’s having perspective to see patterns others miss. Rupert Mitchell’s transition from investment banking to independent research gave him something invaluable: distance that allows pattern recognition impossible under execution pressure. His celebration of generalism – from feeder cattle to SaaS companies to Japanese rice harvesters – isn’t scattered thinking but strategic diversity. Fresh perspectives reveal insights that specialists, trapped in expertise, completely miss. The transferable skills that matter aren’t technical ones that become obsolete, but human skills that compound across decades.

The Trap of Validation. The Pursuit of Mastery | Bill Stephney & Lawrence Yeo JUST PRESS RECORD

Lawrence Yeo once committed 100 hours to write a single story. He just wanted to know what would happen if he put that much time and effort into something. No expectation, just curiosity.

In Lawrence’s case, it eventually led him away from a career in music, a career on Wall Street, and into a career in writing (first book, “The Inner Compass” out now).

In Bill’s case, it eventually expanded from a career in music, to the business of music in movies, documentaries, and even high education.

The overlap is that the external validation ultimately means nothing, even if it’s where we want to focus. It really is a trap. And these two have both figured out how to stay out of it.