Here We Go Again
August 8, 2014·0 comments
Trump's casual optimism about a trade deal gets treated as market-moving information, but his statements are behavioral compulsion, not calculated signaling. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has locked itself into a corner. Powell has reversed course so many times that he cannot credibly reverse again, leaving monetary policy on a one-way street regardless of what happens in trade negotiations. This creates a peculiar trap where the outcome of the negotiation and the policy response are permanently decoupled.
- Trump plays Chicken by compulsion, not calculation. He can't help but say "the largest deal ever made of any kind" the same way he yanks people into forced handshakes. Markets ascribe information to these compulsions and create shared belief around them, but the compulsion is independent of the actual negotiating position.
- The Fed has lost the ability to respond to success. Powell shifted from tightening to accommodation, then back again. He cannot reverse course a third time without destroying whatever credibility remains in forward guidance. The Fed is now committed to accommodation regardless of outcome.
- A trade deal victory doesn't trigger the expected market reaction. If negotiations succeed and markets rally on the deal, commodity prices spike, and sentiment improves, Powell still won't tighten. The win condition is supposed to produce hawkish policy but won't.
- This creates a one-way street for asset prices. With monetary policy locked in accommodation and no credible tightening path available through 2020, the upside has no natural brake. Markets can rise but the Fed has no tool to cool them.
- What happens when institutions lose maneuverability is the real question. Powell has eliminated his own exit ramps. Trump's compulsions will continue to shape market expectations. Nobody can actually assign odds to how this resolves.
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