Ben Hunt
Co-Founder and CIO
Ben Hunt is the creator of Epsilon Theory and inspiration behind Second Foundation Partners, which he co-founded with Rusty Guinn in June 2018.
Epsilon Theory, Second Foundation’s principal publishing brand, is a newsletter and website that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Over 100,000 professional investors and allocators across 180 countries read Epsilon Theory for its fresh perspective and novel insights into market dynamics. As Chief Investment Officer, Ben bears primary responsibility for determining the Company’s investment views and positioning of model portfolios. He is also the primary author of materials distributed through Epsilon Theory.
Ben taught political science for 10 years: at New York University from 1991 until 1997 and (with tenure) at Southern Methodist University from 1997 until 2000. He also wrote two academic books: Getting to War (Univ. of Michigan Press, 1997) and Policy and Party Competition (Routledge, 1992), which he co-authored with Michael Laver. Ben is the founder of two technology companies and the co-founder of SmartEquip, Inc., a software company for the construction equipment industry that provides intelligent schematics and parts diagrams to facilitate e-commerce in spare parts.
He began his investment career in 2003, first in venture capital and subsequently on two long/short equity hedge funds. He worked at Iridian Asset Management from 2006 until 2011 and TIG Advisors from 2012 until 2013. He joined Rusty at Salient in 2013, where he combined his background as a portfolio manager, risk manager, and entrepreneur with academic experience in game theory and econometrics to work with Salient’s own portfolio managers and its financial advisor clients to improve client outcomes.
Ben is a graduate of Vanderbilt University (1986) and earned his Ph.D. in Government from Harvard University in 1991. He lives in the wilds of Redding, CT on Little River Farm, where he personifies the dilettante farmer that has been a stock comedic character since Cicero's day. Luckily his wife, Jennifer, and four daughters, Harper, Hannah, Haven and Halle, are always there to save the day. Ben's hobbies include comic books, Alabama football, beekeeping, and humoring Rusty in trivia "competitions".
Articles by Ben:
Inflation as Common Knowledge gives pricing power to consumer-facing companies.
Skipping the Greek letter Xi in naming the latest Covid variant is ridiculous, not dangerous.
What’s dangerous is WHO leadership placing Chinese political interests ahead of global health interests.
This note is about the Narrative process that makes it so politically difficult to say that yes, parents are responsible for their children’s education AND yes, our children should be taught the fact of embedded racism in our nation’s history.
And why it’s so important that we do so, anyway.
Is The Narrative Machine of Wall Street powerful enough to create a perceived reality of “transitory” inflation even if that transitory-ness is always 12 months away from resolving itself? Even if the real-world endures high levels of realized inflation year after year after year?
If I had to describe our narrative models of market behavior as simply as possible, it would go something like this: markets climb a narrative wall of worry and fall down a narrative slope of hope.
Except for central bank narratives.
Robinhood has been managed to generate a payday for insiders.
Then again, that’s how our entire world is being managed today. For a payday to insiders.
I don’t think there’s anything illegal in how Fed governors trade their personal accounts.
No, I think it’s much worse than that.
This note isn’t about our common knowledge of central banks. It’s about the common knowledge within the crowd of people who are engaged in the profession of central banking. It’s about the common knowledge OF central banks. It’s about the one thing that everyone in central banking knows that everyone in central banking knows: you can’t taper and tighten at the same time.
Our directional equity narrative signals have switched from bullish to bearish, and our equity trend narrative signals now point to a 0% allocation to directional trend-following strategies, their lowest possible state.
The rest, as they say, is commentary.
There is an uncontained spark in the financial world today, a spark that emerged from the unlikeliest of places, a federal courthouse in Florida.
It’s a spark with the potential to light a searing bonfire under Robinhood and Citadel.
#BITFD