Access the Powerpoint slides of this month’s ET Pro monitors here.
Access the PDF version of the ET Pro monitor slides here.
Access the underlying Excel data here.
- US recession commentary drifted downward in both cohesion and attention in October.
- As with other narratives, we believe this took place in part because of general distraction on multiple macro risks. Still, it is our judgment that this is also in part a result of growing Common Knowledge that the recession bullet (in the US anyway) that recession risks have largely been dodged (or will be addressed in market space through aggressive CB policy).
- Also similar to other topics, recession coverage is intensely intertwined with Trade/Tariffs (the common knowledge proximate cause) and broad common knowledge of the need for, inevitability of and market efficacy of stimulus.
- Everyone knows that everyone knows that the Fed and tariff tweets will determine asset prices for now, not economic fundamentals.
- Sentiment is still negative enough to highlight that the economy remains a political talking point, so we wouldn’t call this a complacent narrative structure.
- Still, we believe rapidly falling attention is often accompanied by increased magnitude of surprise to any negative events.
Narrative Attention Map
Fiat News Index
Markets drop another week on signs of economic weakness [Washington Post]
Federal government has dramatically expanded exposure to risky mortgages [Washington Post]