US Fiscal Policy Monitor – 6.30.2019

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Access the Powerpoint slides of this month’s ET Pro monitors here.

Access the PDF version of the ET Pro monitor slides here.

Access the underlying Excel data here.

  • As in prior months, there is very little attention being paid to fiscal policy / budgetary topics, and practically no linguistic connection between them and financial markets narratives.
  • Cohesion and Fiat News, too, remain at floor levels.
  • We counsel some awareness of the scale of policy proposals, especially those being promoted by leading Democratic candidates. The market is paying zero attention with zero cohesion, which we observe as a complacent structure.
  • A sufficiently credible candidate with a GND/MMT-style approach could be a significant surprise to a market that could not care less about debt ceiling negotiations, government shutdowns, debt levels or budget deficits.

Narrative Map

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

Narrative Attention Map

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

Narrative Cohesion


Fiat News Index


Narrative Sentiment


Key Articles

Here’s why D.C.’s CFO is wrong on the budget [Washington Post]

A ‘mind boggling’ tax break was meant to help the poor. But trendy areas are winning too [CNN]

Inside Illinois lawmakers’ pork-barrel frenzy: Pickleball courts, dog parks and clout [Chicago Tribune]

Stop Sneering At de Blasio [New York Times]

Killing the ‘Cadillac tax’ would throw our health care even more out of whack [Washington Post]

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