US Fiscal Policy Monitor – 1.31.2020

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  • Like other topics, Recession narratives rose somewhat in attention and cohesion, but less dramatically than other categories.
  • We believe that this is because coronavirus outbreak fears manifested most in fear about asset prices, leading to rapid missionary behavior with respect to central bank / interest rate activity.
  • In contrast, while the impact of the virus on global economic growth – and potential recession fears – was a topic, it was far less connected.
  • For that reason, we think that there is still a very weak global narrative around recession. In the US that narrative is even weaker.
  • If there is such a narrative, however (as seen in our sentiment and fiat news trackers), missionaries are telling us that there is little risk or reason to be concerned.
  • We have no edge / opinion on whether that is factually accurate. We do believe that markets and media are complacently accepting of it.

Narrative Map

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

Narrative Sentiment Map

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

Narrative Attention Map

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

Narrative Cohesion


Fiat News Index


Narrative Sentiment

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