The Zeitgeist | 1.17.2019

To receive a free full-text email of The Zeitgeist whenever we publish to the website, please sign up here. You'll get two or three of these emails every week, and your email will not be shared with anyone. Ever. It's our effort to spread the word about what we're doing, and allow you to read more Epsilon Theory!

3
Leave a Reply

Please Login to comment
  Subscribe  
newest oldest
Notify of
Mike S
Member
Mike S

Great Idea!

Bottom line:  When discussion of monetary policy is at its highest pitch, there is often less cause for concern than when almost no one it talking about it.  When the big players miss there marks…its the Fed’s Fault when they do hit there marks…no mention of the Fed!

Yes, he will keep hiking but will probably wait until the second half of 2019! Volcker tackled the “Great Inflation” and Powell is tackling the “Asset-Economy.” The sky is not falling folks! Know thyself First! Ben has stated several times he is by nature a “Contrarian-Bear,” so that is his starting point of realizing his emotional state…how bout you? Don’t become a Zombie…know the difference between recession and slowdown…either way, it does look like a cyclical down trend. But what you see can be deceiving…Bogle new this! What a smart guy! To a better place…

“Since the liquidity trap is gone, and inflation remains well under control, the liquidity trap does not seem to be the reason why inflation did not explode post-2008, following the Fed’s stabilization measures.
No one is admitting this simple reality, which is staring us in the face.”
—Tyler Cohen, Aug18

0
Landvermesser
Member
Landvermesser

I notice the narrative around Facebook seems to have swung very hard negative recently. Like the story yesterday about 10-year old profile pictures and whether they’re used to train creepy AI age extrapolation algorithms. I wonder if any if these just missed the cut?

0
Mike S
Member
Mike S

AI doesn’t require the ability to learn. In the most extreme case, all intelligent behavior in the machine could be directly hard-coded into it by a programmer. The machine can still conform to the definition of AI as long as the preset algorithm allows it to achieve its objective. Many current-day AI systems are actually of this rule-based systems type, where engineers supply all the intelligence to the system….it has a long way to go! But it makes a great buzzword!

0

The Daily Zeitgeist

Narrative is not a Disease. Narrative is Us.

By Ben Hunt | September 16, 2019 | 3 Comments

Robert Shiller’s new book, “Narrative Economics”, will be out soon, and the publicity effort is kicking into gear. I am SO HAPPY that the rigorous study of narratives is finally being taken seriously, and grateful to Shiller for making that happen.

I am also SO DEPRESSED about how Shiller’s central metaphor, that narrative = infectious disease, will be used against us. Because the “cure” is the Nudge.

Read more

Sparks, Arcs and Trademarks

By Rusty Guinn | September 13, 2019 | 0 Comments

I’m not sure if electric buses are really a national security risk. Even if they are, I’m not sure characterizing them that way is really an escalation of the trade war into existential rhetoric land.

But it’s worth watching.

Read more

When Meta-Analysis Goes Meta

By Rusty Guinn | September 9, 2019 | 4 Comments

What does it mean when it becomes common knowledge that other investors are focused on evaluating common knowledge?

Read more

I’ve Got a Secret

By Ben Hunt | September 6, 2019 | 8 Comments

Is there a bubble in passive investing? Honestly, I’m not even sure what that question is asking.

I DO think there’s a bubble in markets today – a behavioral bubble I’ll call ABB.

Always. Be. Buying.

And the Common Knowledge around passive investing is what blows this bubble. That’s MY secret.

Read more

The Industrially Necessary Egg

By Ben Hunt | September 5, 2019 | 1 Comment

In modern farming and in modern investing, we have become prisoners of the monoculture. It’s efficient. It’s necessary for a mass society of ever-increasing Desire.

But here’s the thing …

In the investment monoculture, you’re not the farmer.

Read more

Gell-Mann Gravity

By Rusty Guinn | September 3, 2019 | 0 Comments

It’s the Monday Zeitgeist, including all known lanthanides and actinides.

Read more

DISCLOSURES

This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.