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The World ‘Twixt Ought To and Is

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  1. Hi Rusty

    “we reject the learned helplessness of the long now” – absolutely! Except perhaps right now we are invested in preserving our society, not in the capital markets….

  2. Avatar for rguinn rguinn says:

    Why choose?

  3. "Why do we study common knowledge – narratives? Because we think that studying, identifying and measuring the existence and effects of narratives can be a force for concretion of our investment theses. Can broader adoption of narrative analysis techniques, in fact, deliver on the promise of concretion? Can we better understand how, when and why different facts and events will matter to the marginal market participant in the price-setting process?

    I don’t know. I think so. Our historical examinations of the question have produced promising results, but I fear that I am still an agnostic nihilist at heart."


    I feel like that - an agnostic nihilist - when my portfolio stands athwart current price action for too many days in a row. But even then - my work-in-progress, ET-inspired Clear-Eyes, Full-Heart outlook is making those days less common.

    As always, outstanding piece with a lot to absorb, which will require rereading and studying.

  4. Avatar for rguinn rguinn says:

    Thanks, Mark!

  5. The media narrative may be about trade spats and tweets as causal to August’s market moves. When I look at primary flows: US domestic market ETFs & mutual funds, I can find no fuel for upside gaps, I can find fuel for weak closes. Redemption pressure. When I look at daily trading using a 5 minute tick I find fuel for gaps. The gaps are largely at the open and are likely futures/options driven. Would love to post the chart. Futures driven markets are big capital markets. Us muppets should stand aside while the geniuses blow themselves up. We can’t take the other side of the trade.

  6. Rusty…great piece, great writing, and to quote Arnie in Total Recall…"The best mind F$%K ever!

  7. Street preacher at Penn… you aren’t referring to “Brother Stephen” are you?!! He had a rather harsh collapse if I am not mistaken…

  8. Avatar for rguinn rguinn says:

    Oh my, no! Different guys. The self-styled Brother Stephen was absolutely of the God-hates-such-and-such placard variety. I think he got arrested for something lewd during my time there, actually.

  9. Avatar for rguinn rguinn says:

    Thanks, Peter!

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