The World ‘Twixt Ought To and Is

PDF Download (Paid Subscription Required): The World ‘Twixt Ought To and Is I


Want to continue reading this and the other 1,500+ essays you won't find anywhere else?




Already a subscriber? log in here

To learn more about Epsilon Theory and be notified when we release new content sign up here. You’ll receive an email every week and your information will never be shared with anyone else.

Comments

  1. Hi Rusty

    “we reject the learned helplessness of the long now” – absolutely! Except perhaps right now we are invested in preserving our society, not in the capital markets….

  2. Avatar for rguinn rguinn says:

    Why choose?

  3. "Why do we study common knowledge – narratives? Because we think that studying, identifying and measuring the existence and effects of narratives can be a force for concretion of our investment theses. Can broader adoption of narrative analysis techniques, in fact, deliver on the promise of concretion? Can we better understand how, when and why different facts and events will matter to the marginal market participant in the price-setting process?

    I don’t know. I think so. Our historical examinations of the question have produced promising results, but I fear that I am still an agnostic nihilist at heart."

    Nice.

    I feel like that - an agnostic nihilist - when my portfolio stands athwart current price action for too many days in a row. But even then - my work-in-progress, ET-inspired Clear-Eyes, Full-Heart outlook is making those days less common.

    As always, outstanding piece with a lot to absorb, which will require rereading and studying.

  4. Avatar for rguinn rguinn says:

    Thanks, Mark!

  5. The media narrative may be about trade spats and tweets as causal to August’s market moves. When I look at primary flows: US domestic market ETFs & mutual funds, I can find no fuel for upside gaps, I can find fuel for weak closes. Redemption pressure. When I look at daily trading using a 5 minute tick I find fuel for gaps. The gaps are largely at the open and are likely futures/options driven. Would love to post the chart. Futures driven markets are big capital markets. Us muppets should stand aside while the geniuses blow themselves up. We can’t take the other side of the trade.

  6. Rusty…great piece, great writing, and to quote Arnie in Total Recall…"The best mind F$%K ever!

  7. Street preacher at Penn… you aren’t referring to “Brother Stephen” are you?!! He had a rather harsh collapse if I am not mistaken…

  8. Avatar for rguinn rguinn says:

    Oh my, no! Different guys. The self-styled Brother Stephen was absolutely of the God-hates-such-and-such placard variety. I think he got arrested for something lewd during my time there, actually.

  9. Avatar for rguinn rguinn says:

    Thanks, Peter!

Continue the discussion at the Epsilon Theory Forum

Participants

Avatar for rguinn Avatar for Mkahn22 Avatar for Sandy_McIntyre Avatar for peter-perezms-com Avatar for henrybriley Avatar for cartoox

The Latest From Epsilon Theory

DISCLOSURES

This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.