The Solution To The Fintech IPO Shortage

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Every morning, we run the Narrative Machine on the past 24 hours worth of financial media to find the most on-narrative (i.e. interconnected and central) stories in financial media. It’s not a list of best articles or articles we think are most interesting … often far from it.

But for whatever reason these are articles that are representative of some sort of chord that has been struck in Narrative-world.


Scott: Hey, how’s your girl, man? 
Luis: Ah, she left me. 
Scott: Oh. 
Luis: Yeah, my … mom died, too. 
[Beat; Scott gapes in awkward silence]
Luis: And my dad got deported. 
[More silence]
Luis: But I got the van! 
Scott:[quickly] … It’s nice!
Luis: Yeah, right?!

Ant-Man (2015)

The Solution To The Fintech IPO Shortage [Forbes]

The headline is bullish. The tone is positive. But the article is dour as hell. Why haven’t we seen Fintech IPOs, it asks, then provides the answer: because they don’t have sustainable business models, the companies don’t have clear value propositions, they can’t get to scale, IPOs did terribly last year and they haven’t done anything to change the actual economic proposition of financial services products to end users.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln...

Still, the piece manages to end with the kind of relentless optimism that you have to admire on some level. If they can figure those fourteen things out, expect more IPOs! Still, it’s an interesting question, given how powerfully non-financial tech and VC has managed to cultivate a supportive narrative. The problem is pretty simple, and it’s a narrative problem:

Everyone knows that everyone knows that financial services switching costs are extremely high.

It’s the source of the fundamental economic malaise affecting these companies – their stratospheric customer acquisition costs. It’s the source of the scale problem. It’s the reason the business models aren’t sustainable. Having a product that disrupts something customers hate isn’t enough if they still can’t fathom the pain in the ass that is figuring out, learning and actually pulling the trigger to do something different.

The successful Fintech plays have (as the article points out) either served other financial services businesses directly or have figured out how to make the complicated process of switching or simply starting to use a financial product people haven’t used before, well, easy. Any such company that isn’t actively owning its cartoon on this dimension – continuing to obsess over addressable markets and consumer frustration with incumbents – will continue to miss the boat.

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The Daily Zeitgeist

The Only Winning Move

By Rusty Guinn | July 19, 2019 | 2 Comments

It’s privacy and big tech again in today’s Zeitgeist, which is all about mutually assured surveillance. And for Epsilon Theory, it hits home. I think it will hit home for you, too.

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We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat

By Ben Hunt | July 15, 2019 | 0 Comments

Financialization is not a mean-reverting phenomenon. It’s too good of a gravy train for Wall Street, corporate management and the White House to stop now. So they won’t. Like any self-respecting Great White shark, the Nudging State and the Nudging Oligarchy never stop swimming. They never stop eating.

Want to survive these financialized waters if you’re potential shark food? You’re gonna need a bigger boat.

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When Did You Stop Beating Your Wife?

By Ben Hunt | July 12, 2019 | 1 Comment

“De Blasio’s ‘pay parity’ hypocrisy” is a feature article in today’s NY Post, and a central article in today’s media Zeitgeist.

Dig a little deeper into the “scandal”, and you learn that the “evidence” is complete horseshit.

It’s an article specifically designed to manipulate someone like me … someone who is VERY predisposed to believe the worst about Bill de Blasio because I dislike his politics SO MUCH.

It’s a rage engagement, one of two primary forms of Fiat News used to win the Game of You.

Read more

The Upside Down

By Ben Hunt | July 9, 2019 | 1 Comment

Everything is topsy-turvy in the Upside Down of Stranger Things. That’s the Big Baddie in the picture above, known as the Mind Flayer.

Financial media is a Mind Flayer, too, especially when it comes to coverage of crypto and tech companies.

Read more

Raking it in

By Rusty Guinn | July 8, 2019 | 0 Comments

A few months ago, we noted how important it had become for public figures and corporations to control their own cartoon, lest someone control it for them. Well, now that advice has itself become the narrative. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

Read more

Here We Go Again

By Ben Hunt | July 2, 2019 | 1 Comment

“You just recently hours ago met with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping,” Carlson said. “Are you closer, do you think after that meeting, to a trade deal?”

“I think so,” Trump replied. “We had a very good meeting. He wants to make a deal. I want to make a deal. Very big deal, probably, I guess you’d say the largest deal ever made of any kind, not only trade.”

He just can’t help himself. And neither can we.

Read more

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