Source; South Park Studios
It starts in late November with the early birds. But this week –
The Prediction Polka
To learn more about Epsilon Theory and be notified when we release new content sign up here. You’ll receive an email every week and your information will never be shared with anyone else.
Continue the discussion at the Epsilon Theory Forum
Participants
The Latest From Epsilon Theory
DISCLOSURES
This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.
We should not be upset that others hide the truth from us, when we hide it so often from ourselves.” –Rochefoucauld Maximes 11
The CEO, the monk and the Christian…And when the CEO gets in the elevator with us, and then a monk on the next floor, the same sorts of things are going on in each of our heads. I say the monk doesn’t get it because he’s abandoned too much that is pleasurable in the this material world. The CEO doesn’t think any of us get it because we don’t have two vacation homes and a yacht. And the Christian looks down at us because they know that Jesus is the answer.
We’re all subscribed to our own little fantasies, and they all result in squirts of pleasure. We like knowing that we’re part of a small group that “gets it”.
I’m sure you see the Morgan Creek quarterly letters. Lol
Cannot recall the source or exact phrasing but “many words have gone by trying to prove that money doesn’t matter” is my antidote to that occasional “gets it” feeling. Cheers!
Predictions are an attempt to generate transactions. I can remember as a bulge bracket junk bond trader, at a firm I will not disclose, listening to the morning commentary. We would joke about how many hands the economist/strategist/allocator/analyst had and which sentence or two any given salesman would use to drive a trade that sold down our inventory. Scary hilarious mostly because it worked and I imagine still does.
Brands promoting narratives is an ancient practice on this planet. What’s been recently game changing (and accelerating) is the intersection between technology and narrative diffusion. Quid is a truly fascinating platform in this regard. Narratives about narratives. Very meta.
This is why I like to say that a great sales or marketing staff will almost always trump a great investment staff in terms of raising capital from investors. People prefer a good narrative or story to data or analytics.
One of the reasons markets tend to be so volatile is because they trade based more on expectations than fundamentals and investor expectations are often at odds with reality. Much of the financial services industry revolves around expectations management. And when everyone is forced to deal with an unknown future, that expectations management is really more about being a storyteller than anything. --A Wealth of Common Sense