The Funnel

7+ Lately I’ve been thinking about the mechanics of fiat news. By now we know what fiat
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Sanford Rich
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Gresham’s Law applied to intelligence. See Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001, by Milo Jones. Milo addresses the desire of people, especially politicians, to boil down complex questions to clear, single point, answers (sound bites) when the answers are better presented as probability distributions of potential outcomes. I find fiat, perhaps all, news as having a similar tone. This also brings to mind a quote:

“…you should report everything that you think might make your opinion invalid — not only what you think is right about it; The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.”
-Richard Feynman

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Demonetized
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Demonetized

The Milo Jones book looks fascinating. Applications of the material to investment analysis and investment decision making seem fairly straightforward, even from a distance. Thanks for the recommendation!

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