The Many Moods of Macro

Part 2 of the multi-part Three-Body Alpha series, introduced in Rusty’s recent Investing with Icarus note. The Series seeks to explore how the increasing transformation of fundamental and economic data into abstractions may influence strategies for investing — and how it should influence investors accessing them.

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Investing with Icarus

The allure of a fundamental truth is powerful. Investors are hungry for that kind of clarity about markets, but it doesn’t exist. In the first in a series, Rusty discusses a framework for investing in a time of Icarus.

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Is Volatility Back?

On this special episode of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we share an excerpt from a conference call we recorded on February 13 discussing our thoughts on the market selloff earlier in the month. You’ll hear from Christopher Guptill, co-CEO and chief investment officer at Broadmark Asset Management and Dr. Ben Hunt, author of Epsilon Theory.

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Whom Fortune Favors: Things that Matter #1, Pt. 2

Part 1 of this note highlighted the supremacy of the risk decision in portfolio construction. In this follow-up, Rusty observes that many investors may be assuming that the natural risk of asset classes is “right” for them.

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I Am Spartacus: Things that Don’t Matter #1

I am Spartacus!

Oh, we all use index funds. ETFs. We all avoid the evils of acting trading, sure. But in the end, we are all active managers, friends. Yes, you, too.

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Invisible Threads: Matrix Edition

Old Hickory Lake, TN – visible light image (L) and infrared light image (R) Morpheus: Do you believe in fate, Neo? Neo: No. Morpheus: Why not? Neo: Because I don’t like the idea that I’m not in control of my life. Morpheus: I know *exactly* what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. …

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When the Story Breaks

The Three Types of Fear: The Gross-out: the sight of a severed head tumbling down a flight of stairs. It’s when the lights go out and something green and slimy splatters against your arm. The Horror: the unnatural, spiders the size of bears, the dead waking up and walking around. It’s when the lights go …

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It’s Still Not About the Nail

Reader reaction to the March 31 Epsilon Theory note, “It’s Not About the Nail”, was probably the strongest and most positive for any note to date. The message in a nutshell: financial advisors of all stripes and sizes would be well-served to do more than serve up old-school diversification platitudes in this Brave New World …

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It’s Not About the Nail

Do, or do not. There is no try.” – Yoda, “Star Wars: Episode V – The Empire Strikes Back” (1980) I see it all perfectly; there are two possible situations – one can either do this or that. My honest opinion and my friendly advice is this: do it or do not do it – …

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Catch – 22

Four times during the first six days they were assembled and briefed and then sent back. Once, they took off and were flying in formation when the control tower summoned them down. The more it rained, the worse they suffered. The worse they suffered, the more they prayed that it would continue raining. All through …

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