AI & Video Games, Tricky Chatbots and More… (by Silly Rabbit)

AI and video games (again)

Vicarious (a buzzy Silicon Valley company developing AI for robots) say they have a new and crazy-good AI technique called Schema Networks. The Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence and others seem pretty skeptical and demand a throw-down challenge with AlphaGo (or, failing that, some peer-reviewed papers with commonly used terms and a broader set of tests).

In other AI video game news, Microsoft released a video of their AI winning at Ms. Pacman, with an instructive voiceover of how the system works.

Tricky chatbots

I recently stumbled upon Carl Icahn’s Twitter feed which has the tag line: “Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.” Me, I think in 2017 this dichotomy is starting to sound pretty quaint. See: Overview of recent FAIR (Facebook Artificial Intelligence Research division) study teaching chatbots how to negotiate, including the bots self-discovery of the strategy of pretending to care about an item to which they actually give little or no value, just so they can later give up that item to seem to have made a compromise. Apparently, while they were at it, the Facebook bots also unexpectedly created their own language.

The quantum age has officially arrived

I’ve been jabbering on and pointing to links about quantum computing and the types of intractable problems it can solve for some time here, here and here, but now Bloomberg has written a long piece on quantum we can officially declare “The quantum age has officially arrived, hurrah!”. Very good overview piece on quantum computing from Bloomberg Markets here.

Your high dimensional brain

We tend to view ourselves (our ‘selfs’) through the lens of the technology of the day: in the Victorian ‘Mechanical age’ we were (and partly are) bellows and pumps, and now we are, by mass imagination, a collection of algorithms and processors, and possibly living in a VR simulation. While this ‘Silicon Age’ view is probably not entirely inaccurate it is also, probably, in the grand scheme of things, nearly as naive and incomplete as the Victorian view was. Blowing up some of the reductions of current models, this new (very interesting, pretty dense, somewhat contested) paper points towards brain structure in 11 dimensions. Shorter and easier explainer here by Wired or even more concisely by the NY Post“If the brain is actually working in 11 dimensions, looking at a 3D functional MRI and saying that it explains brain activity would be like looking at the shadow of a head of a pin and saying that it explains the entire universe, plus a multitude of other dimensions.”

And in other interesting-brain-related news:

Taming the “Black Dog”

And finally, three different but complimentary technology-enabled approaches to diagnosing and fighting depression:

  • basic algorithm with limited data has shown to be 80-90 percent accurate when predicting whether someone will attempt suicide within the next two years, and 92 percent accurate in predicting whether someone will attempt suicide within the next week.
  • In a different predictive approach, researchers fed facial images of three groups of people (those with suicidal ideation, depressed patients, and a medical control group) into a machine-learning algorithm that looked for correlations between different gestures. The results: individuals displaying a non-Duchenne smile (which doesn’t involve the eyes in the smile) were far more likely to possess suicidal ideation.
  • On the treatment-side, researchers have developed a potentially revolutionary treatment that pulses magnetic waves into the brain, treating depression by changing neurological structures, not its chemical balance.

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Alibaba’s AI, JP Morgan’s Risky Language & the Nurture of Reality (by Silly Rabbit)

Video game-playing AI

AI has moved one step closer to mastering the classic video game StarCraft. Google, Facebook and now Alibaba have been working on AI StarCraft players, and last week a team from China’s Alibaba published a paper describing a system that learned to execute a number of strategies employed by high-level players without being given any specific instruction on how best to manage combat. Like many deep learning systems, the software improved through trial and error, demonstrating the ability to adapt to changes in the number and type of troops engaged in battle. Non-technical overview via The Verge here. Original and fairly accessible technical paper here.

While an AI video game ace may not be world changing in and of itself, progress on AI intra-agent communication and coordination has potentially profound implications for markets as the approach matures, or, as the Alibaba researchers rather poetically note in their paper:

In the coming era of algorithmic economy, AI agents with a certain rudimentary level of artificial collective intelligence start to emerge from multiple domains…[including] the trading robots gaming on the stock markets [and] ad bidding agents competing with each other over online advertising exchanges.

And how do agents behave when their game playing becomes stressful? Apparently just like their human creators: Aggressively. Summary of Google’s DeepMind finds on this here.

Risky language

For anyone who has ever taken general NLP algorithms, trained them on the information of the broader world and then pointed them at financial markets-type information, you will have noticed that they get kind of sad and messed up. Partly because markets-ese is odd (try telling your doctor that being overweight is a good thing) and partly because finance folks sure do love a risk discussion…and apparently no one more so than JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. In his much re-published letter to shareholders:

It is alarming that approximately 40% of those who receive advanced degrees in STEM at American universities are foreign nationals with no legal way of staying here even when many would choose to do so…Felony convictions for even minor offenses have led, in part, to 20 million American citizens having a criminal record…The inability to reform mortgage markets has dramatically reduced mortgage availability.

Thanks, Jamie, my algorithm just quit and immigrated to Canada.

The more serious question on this is that as natural language algorithms (of various types) become ubiquitous, at what point do business leaders begin to craft their communications primarily to influence the machine, or at least not include detailed socio-political critiques to accidentally trip it?

The nurture of reality

Clearly, our perception of reality, our world view, is substantially informed by our memories and the stories (links) we tell ourselves about these memories. We are now, for the first time, just starting to get an understanding of how memories are physically stored in the brain. Recollections of successive events physically entangle each other when brain cells store them, as Scientific American reports.

The Map of Physics, a joyous 8 minute video by Dominic Walliman (formerly of D-Wave quantum computing), culminates in the map below with The Chasm of Ignorance, The Future and Philosophy. Walliman points to where we must be operating if we are to break truly new ground (i.e., put the regression models down, please). And if you liked that, keep watching to Your Quantum Nose: How Smell Works

And, finally, a classic, epic, challenging, practical, piece of prose/poetry from one of the the world’s greatest philosophers and orators: the late, great, Tibetan Buddhist meditation master Chögyam Trungpa. Long treatise on Zen vs. Tantra as a system for nurturing the mind:

…the discovery of shunyata [emptiness of determinate intrinsic nature] is no doubt the highest cardinal truth and the highest realization that has ever been known…

Coming next week: The next generation of flash crashes; digital Darwinism and the resurgence of hardware.

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