Tag: Professional

What’s happening today is not only a war between commercial banks and asset managers over credit provision to large US companies, it’s also a war …

The Fed is looking for an excuse to cut, and as soon as they have that excuse, they will. There are two possible narrative excuses, one immediate and…

My spidey-sense is no longer tingling like crazy about the overall rise in scale and scope of private credit. It's a profound shift in the core social…

It doesn’t happen often, but every few years there’s a real-world shock that leaves the old narrative structures standing but eliminates all the p…

I think everyone in Washington and on Wall Street is in the bag for nominal growth (ie, number-go-up) by any means necessary through November. Washin…

That which we call QE by any other name would smell as sweet. I think if Shakespeare were reincarnated as a Fintwit luminary, that’s how he’d rew…

I got some more color from Rusty on the shift in our Narrative Monitors this month from hawkish to dovish central bank narratives, and I thought it wa…

Recording of last Friday’s private credit working group call, along with a transcript for those who prefer reading over video. The main takeaway is…

Once a truthy-sounding explanation for a market crash is widely publicized, the crash stops. It becomes safe to get back in the water. That's true fo…

We're starting to pick up the "no landing" macro scenario in the Narrative Machine.

Recording of the private credit working group conference call on Jan 26.

I think that we’re gearing up for Round Two of the Unmooring Trade.

The language FROM central bankers remains hawkish (“slow down on your projected 2024 rate cut schedule”), but the language TO central bankers is n…

We’ve moved from the promise of cutting rates (mission accomplished on inflation and a soft landing, so now the Fed should cut rates by choice rathe…

Recording of our kick-off call for an ET Professional working group on private credit.

The Fed just raised their inflation target from 2% to 4% without saying that they raised their inflation target from 2% to 4%.

If the Fed cuts four times in 2024, it’s because we are having a nasty recession. If we don’t have a nasty recession, I don’t think the Fed cuts…

Every macroeconomic data release will be parsed and presented by Wall Street and the White House to pressure the Fed to lower the price of money. That…