Tag: Professional

Why did the Fed slap down Mr. Market's expectations of massive rate cuts in 2024? Because the most important thing for the Fed is not to be right, bu…

In narrative-world, we have now redefined core CPI to not only exclude food and energy prices directly, but also indirectly. If airfares went up in-li…

The latest narrative development I’m seeing is that the US economy has “decoupled” from the other Big Three economies: China, Germany and Japan,…

Last week I wrote that the Big Idea (unmoored long-end of rates curve) had been discovered, which always means that the counter-narrative isn’t far …

Just in the past week, a new viral thread in narrative-world to support the 'unmoored long-dated rates' trade.

We're reconfiguring the entire ET Pro service to support our Big Idea for 2023: long-dated interest rates are coming unmoored, meaning that 10-year+ T…

Well, it’s been about three weeks since my “feel it in my bones” email describing why I think the next investable (+/- 7% or so) move in equity …

There is a constructed ebullience in the US economy right now, by which I mean that the usual narrative wall of worry that Wall Street uses to grind h…

Over the past 14 years, Quality, Value and Skill have been useless in professional asset management. They used to work. They don't work any longer. …

I feel like Clint Eastwood has said the line “a man’s got to know his limitations” or something similar in every movie he’s ever appeared in, …

It’s an interesting period of time in the world of professional investing right now, where everyone is going through the old motions and observing t…

This week we’ve got a new big note on AI, a new set of Narrative Monitors with several new signals triggered, and two new articles from the past wee…

Assuming that Treasury and the Fed have stopped the immediate, fast-motion bank run at First Republic and created a reasonable firewall (and I think t…

Last week I wrote that my spidey-sense was not tingling when it came to systemic risk for the banking system, that I just didn’t see the pervasive r…

Over the past week we’ve had one bank fail (Silvergate) and another forced to raise new equity and start protesting-too-much about how there’s no …

ODTE stands for zero days to expiry, and it’s the catch-all phrase for options that expire the same day they are written. ODTEs are all the rage, …

I’m 58 years old, and this is the greatest level of direct military confrontation between the world’s superpowers in my adult lifetime.

“Narrative Stability, Hanging by a Thread” is a badly mixed metaphor, but it conveys exactly what we’re seeing in narrative-world these days. W…

Nothing gets my spidey-sense tingling more than a market that looks benign enough, but has enormous carnage occurring just below the surface. And that…

Whether or not Blackstone and Starwood are successful in maintaining the Story of Adequate Liquidity and preserving their private REIT franchises thro…