Four Roads to the Great Ravine (revisited)
1) US election spurs fiscal deficit.
2) Phony War between Israel and Iran gets real.
3) Preventive war between US and China over tech embargo.
4) New …
Tag: Professional
Available to Professional level subscribers only.
Four Roads to the Great Ravine (June 26, 2024)
1) US election spurs even greater fiscal deficit
2) Phony War between Israel and Iran gets real
3) Preventive war risk between US and China over tech …
The Summer of Inflation
I think we are about to experience a pretty dramatic resurgence in inflation.
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Deficit
This is a common knowledge moment for the global financial system -- everyone now knows that everyone now knows that the US deficit cannot be controll…
We Now Resume Our Regularly Scheduled Entertainment
I think we are now resuming our regularly scheduled entertainment, which means dollar down, gold up, and everyone – and I do mean everyone – poise…
ET Professional Webinar Replay – May 16, 2025
We’ve built and published a new set of narrative storyboards on traditional safe haven assets like US Treasuries, and we discuss that in this live Z…
The Death of Risk and the Triumph of Consumption
It’s really pretty stunning how the largest sovereign bond market in the world (the United States) and the third largest sovereign bond market in th…
The Liz Trussification of America
Like every insurance CIO at this conference, I also think that the Fed will step in as a buyer of last resort if we have a flash crash in Treasuries.
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ET Professional Webinar Replay – April 24, 2025
A recording of our Professional Call held on Friday April 24, 2025.
This Is the Business We Have Chosen
I think that no matter what happens in the US-China trade war, the professional investment and allocation world no longer trusts the global prime brok…
Capital Flight Narratives
I know it feels like everyone in our world is talking about capital flight out of the US, and our gut reaction (or at least my gut reaction) is to fad…
ET Professional Webinar Replay – What Happens When the US is Just Another Country? (April 11, 2025)
Our technology shows two narratives -- “Foreign Investors Repatriating Capital” and “Investors see Gold as Better Alternative to UST” -- explo…
Epsilon Theory Professional Storyboards
Storyboards are an Epsilon Theory exclusive research product where we go beyond sentiment to explore the meaning of the stories being told about markets, events,…
Archived Epsilon Theory Professional Storyboards
Storyboards are an Epsilon Theory exclusive research product where we go beyond sentiment to explore the meaning of the stories being told about markets, events,…
What Happens When the United States is Just Another Country
I’ve got some ideas on what a model portfolio looks like to manage both the exit from the old regime and the entrance into the new, and I’d like t…
The Prisoners Dilemma Portfolio
Every strategic interaction that the United States government participates in, both domestically and internationally, is transforming from a Coordinat…
It’s Not ‘Recession Fears’
Today’s market breakdown – because that’s what it was, an ugly gross deleveraging breakdown – had little to do with ‘recession fears’, and…
The Year of Magical Thinking
I’ve rarely seen a more powerful political and market narrative – we’re going to trigger a recession and that’s a good thing! – flowing just…
I’ve Seen This Movie Before
Some quick thoughts on the inflation data out this week, along with the unusual market reaction to same.
DeepSeek Semantic Signature Tracker
On February 2nd we published DeepFreak, an analysis of DeepSeek narratives in global news media. For Epsilon Theory Professional subscribers only, we are publishing a…