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Tag: Professional

Available to Professional level subscribers only.

The Phone Call Is Coming From Inside The House

Last week I wrote that my spidey-sense was not tingling when it came to systemic risk for the banking system, that I just didn’t see the pervasive r…
Ben Hunt March 15, 2023
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Book Value

Over the past week we’ve had one bank fail (Silvergate) and another forced to raise new equity and start protesting-too-much about how there’s no …
Ben Hunt March 10, 2023
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ODTE Is the New Black

ODTE stands for zero days to expiry, and it’s the catch-all phrase for options that expire the same day they are written. ODTEs are all the rage, …
Ben Hunt February 24, 2023
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Spidey Sense

I’m 58 years old, and this is the greatest level of direct military confrontation between the world’s superpowers in my adult lifetime.
Ben Hunt February 12, 2023
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Narrative Stability, Hanging by a Thread

“Narrative Stability, Hanging by a Thread” is a badly mixed metaphor, but it conveys exactly what we’re seeing in narrative-world these days. W…
Ben Hunt February 8, 2023
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Momo Destruction

Nothing gets my spidey-sense tingling more than a market that looks benign enough, but has enormous carnage occurring just below the surface. And that…
Ben Hunt February 3, 2023
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When Does The Story Break?

Whether or not Blackstone and Starwood are successful in maintaining the Story of Adequate Liquidity and preserving their private REIT franchises thro…
Ben Hunt January 20, 2023
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Big Shift in January Narrative Monitors

I expect Wall Street and financial media to trumpet the “soft landing” thesis pretty loudly over the next few weeks. Is this correct? Personally, …
Ben Hunt January 6, 2023
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This Is the Business We Have Chosen

If you are responsible for Other People’s Money, you sever ties with your undercapitalized, overlevered broker before there’s a run on the bank. Y…
Ben Hunt December 21, 2022
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Sam Bankman-Fried and the FTX/Alameda Fraud (ET Pro edition)

I believe quite strongly that Bankman-Fried should be questioned a) by professionals, b) under oath, and c) in a venue that allows for evidence to be …
Ben Hunt December 12, 2022
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The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

A big change in our narrative monitors this month! Also, some shocking (to me, anyway) data on how good some companies are with their stock buybacks,…
Ben Hunt November 7, 2022
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Mortgage Markets and History’s Rhymes

In Q4 2007 – in the aftermath of the Bear Stearns MBS funds going out (June), the blow-up across most quant funds (August), and both autos and housi…
Ben Hunt October 21, 2022
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Statistics and Narrative Creation (Shelter Inflation ed.)

Everywhere you look today, you are seeing Wall Street and Washington missionaries using annualized month-over-month or quarter-over-quarter inflation …
Ben Hunt October 18, 2022
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Floating to the Surface

My rule of thumb is that it takes about two months for the dead bodies of institutional investment firms that have been drowned by some macro turn of …
Ben Hunt October 5, 2022
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Waiting for Godot

The math that drives 2023 dovish hopes on Wall Street and the White House is this: string 12 months of constant +0.2% month-over-month CPI readings to…
Ben Hunt September 21, 2022
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Lehman Moments, Tepper Moments, and German Economic Collapse

Could the German situation get worse? Of course it could. Have we had a “Lehman moment” yet? No, we have not. But I don’t think we are that far …
Ben Hunt August 23, 2022
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Hostage Situation

In times of profound informational need – like today when we *really* need to know if inflation is embedded in the real economy – we are desperate…
Ben Hunt August 9, 2022
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A Tale of Two Inversions

Multiple not-seen-in-a-quarter-century events have occurred over the past six weeks in rates-world. The lack of narrative attention is striking, as ar…
Ben Hunt July 27, 2022
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One Narrative To Rule Them All

I believe that it is impossible in a robust, ie, non-financialized and non-levered macroeconomic world, for a nation’s people to be a lot richer tha…
Ben Hunt July 7, 2022
0 Comments

Weimar, War, and the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence

It feels weird to be rooting for a Volcker-esque recession and long bear market as the best potential outcome for where we are today. But there are wo…
Ben Hunt June 21, 2022
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