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Tag: Professional

Available to Professional level subscribers only.

Hostage Situation

In times of profound informational need – like today when we *really* need to know if inflation is embedded in the real economy – we are desperate…
Ben Hunt August 9, 2022
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A Tale of Two Inversions

Multiple not-seen-in-a-quarter-century events have occurred over the past six weeks in rates-world. The lack of narrative attention is striking, as ar…
Ben Hunt July 27, 2022
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One Narrative To Rule Them All

I believe that it is impossible in a robust, ie, non-financialized and non-levered macroeconomic world, for a nation’s people to be a lot richer tha…
Ben Hunt July 7, 2022
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Weimar, War, and the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence

It feels weird to be rooting for a Volcker-esque recession and long bear market as the best potential outcome for where we are today. But there are wo…
Ben Hunt June 21, 2022
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The Universe is Healing … or Going Nuts, Kinda Hard to Tell

We have two new narrative signals here in June, both Bullish in direction, which is a welcome change from the largely uniform Bearish signals of April…
Ben Hunt June 6, 2022
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Seems Like Old Times

For a solid two years, call it early 2011 through early 2013, comparative euro-area gov't bond yields was the first chart I’d look at in the morning…
Ben Hunt May 25, 2022
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But The US Consumer Is Strong! ™

If there’s one common knowledge narrative that I think can break over the coming months, it’s But The US Consumer Is Strong! ™.
Ben Hunt May 10, 2022
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The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

I’d like to tell you that our Narrative Monitors are not as bearish for May as they were for April. Yep, I'd really like to tell you that.
Ben Hunt May 5, 2022
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We’re Entering a Deleveraging Cycle

The big global risk today is not that the banks are undercapitalized. No, the big global risk today is that banks are unwilling to provide long-term f…
Ben Hunt April 26, 2022
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Aaaaand It’s Gone

The narrative puts and takes of March (and the resulting market rollercoaster) have coalesced into no puts and all takes. This is about as bearish a s…
Ben Hunt April 6, 2022
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The Word of the Day is “Soothing”

I personally thought what Powell said in his presser today was market-negative. But who cares what I think! What matters is how market participants ar…
Ben Hunt March 16, 2022
0 Comments

Trading Sardines

In commodity markets, crypto markets, and equity markets ... we're all sardine traders now.
Ben Hunt March 10, 2022
0 Comments

Weeks Where Decades Happen

I don’t think the proposed Russia sanctions are likely to trigger a systemic financial crisis, and I think Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling is postu…
Ben Hunt February 27, 2022
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The Inflation Narrative’s Third Act

The structure of a market narrative isn’t as settled or as constructed as a Hollywood script, but it’s not too far off, either. We're in Act Thr…
Ben Hunt February 8, 2022
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A Shortseller’s Perspective

I am a shortseller by nature and (former) profession. Like my favorite comic book character, Karnak the Inhuman, my superpower is to see the flaw in a…
Ben Hunt January 24, 2022
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Bye Bye, Punch Bowl

You know who understands how inflation absolutely wrecks the popular support of any government? The Fed. You know who doesn’t get it? You know who …
Ben Hunt January 5, 2022
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Inflation Is

Today Jay Powell had a press conference, where he had a very simple and well-delivered message: Inflation Is. Does this mean that we’re off to the …
Ben Hunt December 16, 2021
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Corporate Margins Are Stronger Than You Think

Inflation as common knowledge gives pricing power to consumer-facing companies.
Ben Hunt December 1, 2021
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Industrially Necessary Inflation

Is the narrative machine of Wall Street powerful enough to create a perceived reality of “transitory” inflation even if that transitory-ness is al…
Ben Hunt November 23, 2021
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Lions and Tigers and Bears … Oh My!

If I had to describe our narrative models of market behavior as simply as possible, it would go something like this: markets climb a narrative wall of…
Ben Hunt November 4, 2021
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