Too Clever By Half
The inevitable result of financial innovation gone awry, which it ALWAYS does, is that it ALWAYS ends up empowering the State. When too clever by half…
Tag: ET Origins
The Three-Body Problem
What if I told you that the dominant strategies for human investing are, without exception, algorithms and derivatives? I don't mean computer-driven i…
Virtue Signaling, or … Why Clinton is in Trouble
Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will …
Magical Thinking
The problem with magical thinking run amok and its perpetuation of a fantasy world is that sooner or later the dream of the delusional king becomes a …
The Narrative Machine
"So, in the interests of survival, they trained themselves to be agreeing machines instead of thinking machines. All their minds had to do was to disc…
Hobson’s Choice
I'd like an omelet, plain, and a chicken salad sandwich on wheat toast, no mayonnaise, no butter, no lettuce, and a cup of coffee. Now all you have to…
When Does the Story Break?
Margaret Bourke-White took this photo of the Garment District in 1930. Every single person on the street is wearing a hat. How did THAT behavior chang…
Adaptive Investing: What’s Your Market DNA?
In 1837 on page 36 of his so-called “B” notebook, Charles Darwin wrote the words “I think” followed by the first depiction of an evolutionary …
It Was Barzini All Along
“Tattaglia is a pimp. He never could have outfought Santino. But I didn’t know until this day that it was Barzini all along.” - Don Vito Corleon…
How Gold Lost Its Luster, How the All-Weather Fund Got Wet, and Other Just-So Stories
In some periods of history gold is money. In other periods of history gold is not. But gold is always something, and that something is defined by the …
Through the Looking Glass, or … This is the Red Pill
The first ET note focused on Information Theory.
Epsilon Theory Manifesto
Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history, and be…