Post-Fed
Follow-Up

A quick post-Fed follow-up to “Tell My Horse”, the best-received Epsilon Theory note to date (thank you!). I’ll jump right into what I’ve got to say, without the usual 20 pages of movie quotes and the like. Well, I’ve got one quote above, because I can’t help myself. They’re the lyrics to the best break-up song ever, and they’re what Janet Yellen was singing to the market on Wednesday.

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Hobson’s Choice

If you don’t like what’s being said, change the conversation. – Don Draper, Mad Men: “Love Among the Ruins” (2009) It is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally. – John Maynard Keynes, “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money” (1936) Bobby: What do you mean you don’t make side orders …

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Rewardless Risk

Faramir: Then farewell! But if I should return, think better of me. Denethor: That depends on the manner of your return. – J.R.R. Tolkien “The Lord of the Rings” (1954) I’m going full-nerd with the “Lord of the Rings” introduction to today’s Epsilon Theory note, but I think this scene — where Denethor, the mad …

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You Can Either Surf, or You Can Fight

Kilgore: Smell that? You smell that? Lance: What? Kilgore: Napalm, son.  Nothing else in the world smells like that. – Apocalypse Now (1979) Hello, hello, hello, how low? [x3]– Nirvana, Smells Like Teen Spirit (1991) Outside the bus the smell of sulfur hit Bond with sickening force.  It was a horrible smell, from somewhere down in the stomach of the …

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Storm Warning

Unfortunately for mariners, the total amount of wave energy in a storm does not rise linearly with wind speed, but to its fourth power. The seas generated by a forty-knot wind aren’t twice as violent as those from a twenty-knot wind, they are seventeen times as violent. A ship’s crew watching the anemometer climb even …

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The New TVA

War is too important to be left to the generals.– Georges Clemenceau (1841 -1929) Competition has been shown to be useful up to a certain point and no further, but cooperation, which is the thing we must strive for today, begins where competition leaves off. … If we call the method regulation, people will hold …

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Why Take a Chance?

Vinny Forlano: He won’t talk. Stone is a good kid. Stand-up guy, just like his old man. That’s the way I see it. Vincent Borelli: I agree. He’s solid. An effin’ Marine. Americo Capelli: He’s okay. He always was. Remo, what do you think? Remo Gaggi: Look… why take a chance? At least, that’s the …

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Catch – 22

Four times during the first six days they were assembled and briefed and then sent back. Once, they took off and were flying in formation when the control tower summoned them down. The more it rained, the worse they suffered. The worse they suffered, the more they prayed that it would continue raining. All through …

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The Game of Thrones and the Game of Markets

Two items for the mid-week. First, an invitation to attend a Salient Webinar I’ll be presenting next Thursday, September 18th at 2pm ET, titled: “The Game of Thrones and the Game of Markets”. I’ll be tying together various threads from past Epsilon Theory notes, with the goal of showing how to listen to financial news and …

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