Paid Members can log in here.
To learn more about Epsilon Theory and be notified when we release new content sign up here. You’ll receive an email every week and your information will never be shared with anyone else.
This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.
With the kindly little old grandma as figure head, ahhh isn’t she so cute, what an adorable little thing, I bet she even bakes apple pies in her spare time.
But as with any great cartoon character, you know the demon inside that is going to break out from her granny costume, is going to be of mythically bad and evil proportions.
I think she was intentionally put in place at Treasury so she can lead the upcoming Great Reset project that has been under planning for several years. It will be relatively easy for an innocuous soft-spoken little old granny to enact the Great Reset and bring the sheep along for their fleecing.
We need hobbits, but we’re unfortunately all human warriors, rangers, and mages.
So I am a little skeptical. There has to be a reason (since you state it isn’t to collect taxes or to fight terrorists, etc.) besides just being able to “see” all the money in the world. “Seeing” the money has to lead to something useful (I don’t believe that the Treasury just loves knowledge for its own sake) for the Treasury and the government. Perhaps to keep an eye on potential political rivals to the government, perhaps a means to direct money flows in the general direction that the Treasury would like, or something else. So tell me for what use do they want to put the knowledge of “seeing all money”.
If you think of the Treasury as part of the Intelligence Community… And what isn’t these days?
Crypto does not have an actual use case that can be made to the broader public. When the public generally understands and likes a thing we care about it being regulated and want the rules to enhance the value of the thing. We like airbags and prescription drugs, so we want to those things to be overseen by people who aim to improve them. Most people don’t have a clue what crypto is good for, other than illicit activities, so the public kind of doesn’t care if it gets regulated into oblivion. The crypto community is this small, strange pocket of people that exist on The Twitters as far as the average person knows, so why are they going to get exercised by new regulations?
The people who needed to make the case for crypto all got sucked in by the NGU wing of the community and after all was said and done they ended up much richer but with no public support for the basic reason the technology exists. Once BTC became a casino chip the only people who cared about it were the ones who needed the chip to still be some simulacrum of legal tender, at least long enough for them to turn it in to the gal behind the cage. After that what happens to it is of little concern.
This is a really great summary at a macro level.
Hmm. I think the world at large is at risk of missing the fundamental “use case” for crypto. By searching for some very specific and novel/interesting use case it is easily missed that crypto is more like…alternative “water to swim in”. Perhaps that explains why the use case still seems elusive to most.
I am personally wedged right in the middle, demographically speaking. I am too old to have properly participated in the dawn of the “metaverse” with its various gaming environments and digital tokens. But I am young enough to understand the principles and I am raising small humans that are already immersed in it. For a valuable perspective, I very much recommend reading this article by a young man called Piers Kicks.
You don’t have to agree with or even understand it all, but it will make you go…hmmm…which is valuable in its own right. Suffice to say that the younger generation is already well versed with the concept of the metaverse. And as Piers Kicks writes in this article, “in hindsight, it will be obvious that crypto’s role in the metaverse was the most imperative yet least explored by those speculating on its emergence.”
So, cryptocurrencies are basically “metaverse water” . And that sounds like a fairly exciting use case to me.
Thank you for the suggested reading, I’ll definitely take a look at that.
As for the use case within the metaverse–and I have commented on that particular phenomenon before–I think you’re right. But it also very much proves my original point that crypto has no use case to the broader public. The metaverse is essentially Boomer repellent, which culturally is very interesting, but that puts it outside the place where the vast majority of today’s wealth resides. It’s an interesting generational dynamic and I’ll be very curious to see how it all plays out. I’m in a similar demographic as you and feel like I get it, but also I absolutely do not get it.
I agree that the metaverse is not boomer-friendly at the moment. But if there is one trend I am paying attention to, it is the accelerating speed of change, and the metaverse will be announcing its arrival to everyone sooner rather than later. As an IM in a private wealth management company I know very well where wealth is concentrated at the moment…by comparison, my clients make me feel young and youthful every day…
But I also know that we (my company) spend most of our time tailoring our offering to the next generation and I have no choice but to agree with this tactic. (I mean…I think it is futile and I fully expect to become irrelevant once the generation of clients that value human interaction dies off, but if I had to choose an area to focus on I would focus on the next generation as well.)
I belong to a small group of investment managers who entered into the field due to a sincere interest in stock markets, but relatively quickly realised that my role is primarily to hold my clients hands while they expose parts of their wealth to market forces. It is a small group, because most of my colleagues were either never actually interested in markets (the professional relationship managers…) or they are still deluding themselves into thinking that our compliance departments would actually allow us to do anything with our clients’ portfolios that would result in alpha. But I digress…
I absolutely do not get all aspects of the metaverse either. But I get that the use case for the internet was pretty narrow in the 80s as well. Until it wasn’t. Crypto as a whole (not individual coins etc) seems similar. It is about imagining its potential as…infrastructure. As “water”. Which is why I don’t have any problems understanding why governments would like to get a head start on regulating it…
Thanks for your thoughtful response.
The use case for Bitcoin is really simple. It is an asset. It is a piece of property. It is a new asset class that many people think will stand up well as store of value when USD fiat collapses and is displaced as global reserve currency.
The collapse of USD fiat as a global reserve currency is not controversial. If you look at history is is inevitable. The exact date of collapse is not knowable. If may be next week, next quarter, next year, or maybe it won’t happen for a decade? No one knows when. We just know it will happen. And it may not occur on a single day. It could just be a continuing multi-year trend. Triffin Dilemma guarantees USA will be running trade deficits into infinity while USD remains as global reserve currency. This situation is unsustainable politically and economically.
So what are you doing to protect your wealth in face of USD fiat no longer being world reserve currency at some time in future ?
If you are sitting and doing nothing with a large pile of USD in cash, you are an ostrich.
If you are taking actions to get your wealth into assets other than BTC that you think will be good stores of value (e.g. gold, farmland, etc.), good for you. No one is forcing you to like BTC now or buy BTC now.