A grown man made a wager. He lost. He made another wager. He lost again. End of story.
– Tony Soprano
This is the story of weak men and rapacious men.
This is the story of Bed Bath & Beyond.
This is the story of America today.

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
Recent Notes
Cursed Knowledge #13: Subverting Censorship
The Golden Age of Hollywood was full of drama. On and off screen. It was the age of carefully cultivated images. Fake names and secret procedures. And it was the age of censorship. The Hays Code and the censorship office had more influence on the film industry than any actor, director, or producer ever could. They had full control over what Hollywood made. Well, almost. There were still a few loopholes left to exploit.
The Widening Gyre
The widening gyre is eating America alive. It is the instrument of the Beast, a three-headed hydra of Big Politics, Big Media and Big Tech.
A third political party can be our weapon to slay the Beast, but not in the way you think.
Why the Yankees Sucked in August
“The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular.”
That was Edward Gibbon in 1774. This is ET contributor Brent Donnelly saying the same thing but in a much more entertaining way in 2022.
Government Sponsorship and the Student Loan Crisis
US student debt is no longer ordinary debt, but has morphed into a bizarre government tax-and-spend model.
Sauron Remains Undefeated
The US Treasury is the Eye of Sauron — a gigantic panopticon tower that sweeps the world with its unblinking gaze, seeking out the owners of power, i.e. money.
What Treasury did to Tornado Cash and its developers is just the beginning.
Cursed Knowledge #12: Resurrectionists
What’s in a name? Quite a bit actually. Names and titles can be all that’s needed to make some one a hero or a villain. So we’re looking at some villains who never got their proper title. People who were able to hide behind social standing and wealth to excuse their crimes.
Before You Fly The Nest: Advice for kids heading to college
ET contributor Brent Donnelly went out and asked some people he respects what advice they would give kids heading off to college. Here’s what he found.
The Most Important Sector in the Universe
The total value of the Chinese residential property sector is approximately $60 trillion – twice the size of the US residential market and bigger than the entire US bond market. Bigger than the entire US stock market, too.
It is … ummm … having a moment.
The Fifteen Faces of Fiat News
We’re building a Narrative Early Warning System (NEWS) as our first major research project in a larger effort to inoculate ourselves against the weaponized narratives of Big Tech, Big Media and Big Politics.
Cursed Knowledge #11: Locks of Love
Locks of Love is one of the most well known and well regarded charities in America. But things aren’t always what they seem. Sometimes the smokescreen of common knowledge can obscure what’s really going on. So join me in a look behind the curtain at America’s most beloved charity.
Mailbag! Hollow Men Edition
The Epsilon Theory commentariat is the best thing on the Internet today. Watch from a distance if you like, but when you’re ready … join us!
Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World
Over the past 25 years, our leaders have intentionally constructed an Apocalypse Now world of proclamation and fiat, where our wealth has grown much faster than our economy.
The bill is due for their hubris, and inflation is here to collect it.
How to Succeed as a Sell Side Trader
ET contributor Brent Donnelly has some advice that’s ostensibly for sell-side traders, but is actually for everyone in markets. And everyone who isn’t.
Being Human in a LARPing World
The cure for the cancer of gun culture and police culture is not to be found in reform laws around guns and police, but in reform ideas around culture, ideas that create a new dimension of American society that rejects LARPing and LARPers alike.
The MacGuffin, Part 1: The Corrupt Crypto ‘Revolution’
If you don’t see that the crypto “industry” has become just as blindingly corrupt, just as oozingly fatuous, just as profoundly captured by the Nudging Oligarchy as the traditional financial services industry it was supposed to replace … well, you’re just not paying attention.
The Most Important Trading Decision
Trading is hard. Your odds of success are heavily influenced by the seat you choose. Retail trader or bank trader or PM, here are metrics to evaluate that seat.
Cursed Knowledge #10: This Podcast Never Happened
We’ve all fallen victim to a bad retcon at some point in our lives. It’s Sherlock Holmes coming back from the dead. It’s the reveal that an entire season of Dallas was only a dream. It’s the author changing their mind and trying to convince you that it’s all part of the plan. I don’t buy it. And neither should you.
NGMI
The Fed’s rate hikes to curb inflation?
Not gonna make it.
Money Can Buy Happiness (in variable and diminishing quantities)
What does your money/happiness curve look like? Is it curved or linear? Does it flatline somewhere? If so, where?
There’s the game of trading and the metagame of life. To win the latter, you have to Know Thyself.

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.