What Do We Need To Be True?

By Rusty Guinn | April 6, 2021 | 34

Modeling common knowledge by analyzing missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.

Understanding changes in the big, zeitgeist-defining narratives, in the water in which we swim, means developing a way of thinking about the barriers that make it harder for the crowd to change its mind.

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A Tiger Can’t Change Its Stripes

By Ben Hunt | March 30, 2021 | 30

What do you get when you give a raccoon like Bill Hwang tens of billions of dollars AND invisibility from regulators so that he can run his collusion and insider trading schemes to his heart’s content? You get a rolling series of squeezes and corners. You get a market that is completely disconnected from reality. You get ridiculous Chinese companies pumped and dumped through US listings. You get a Tesla that’s valued at a trillion dollars. You get Gamestop.

I’m not saying that Hwang is responsible for all of this. I think he’s responsible for some of this. And I think there are a lot more Bill Hwangs out there.

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Hunger Games Saga

Covid Variants

The Zimbabwe Event

By Ben Hunt | January 27, 2021

UK-Variant SARS-CoV-2 Update

By Ben Hunt | January 20, 2021

ET Podcast #3 – The Ireland Event

By Ben Hunt | January 14, 2021

The Ireland Event

By Ben Hunt | January 12, 2021

Donald Rumsfeld and Risk Management

By Ben Hunt | October 7, 2012 | 0

Early notes on investment as an exercise in decision-making under uncertainty. epsilon-theory-donald-rumsfeld-and-risk-management-october-7-2012.pdf (197 KB)

Hello Darkness My Old Friend

By Ben Hunt | September 29, 2012 | 0

Growing political fragmentation in Europe and its structural consequences for markets. epsilon-theory-hello-darkness-my-old-friend-september-29-2012.pdf (123 KB)

Dude, Where’s My Financial Repression

By Ben Hunt | September 15, 2012 | 0

An initial analysis of the Sept. 15th FOMC announcement of open-ended QE. epsilon-theory-dude-wheres-my-financial-repression-september-15-2012.pdf (191 KB)

Why Do Words Matter So Much?

By Ben Hunt | August 30, 2012 | 0

Early notes on importance of Common Knowledge game in understanding market behavior. epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB) Test: epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB)

Harper's Corner

Time to cancel all my weekend plans! Fearless (Taylor's Version) is out and I have to listen to this a few hundred times before Monday.

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Search and Discovery

Archive Spotlight

Do The Right Thing

March 19, 2020

I’m angry that I have to write this note about the airline industry and how to structure the bail-out of United, Delta, American and Southwest. But I must, because the raccoons and the high-functioning sociopaths are looking to get their private losses socialized and their private gains locked in.

Bailout the airlines and their rank-and-file employees? You bet.

Bailout the CEOs and Warren Buffett? Not a chance.

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ET Live!

ET Live! 3.16.2021

March 18, 2021

Our March 2021 ET Live. Talking about our latest notes and podcasts.

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