The Zeitgeist
The Ireland Event
I believe there is a non-trivial chance that the United States will experience a rolling series of “Ireland events” over the next 30-45 days, where the Covid effective reproductive number (Re not R0) reaches a value between 2.4 and 3.0 in states and regions where a) the more infectious UK-variant (or similar) Covid strain has been introduced, and b) Covid fatigue has led to deterioration in social distancing behaviors.
ET Podcast #3 – The Ireland Event
In episode #3 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, Rusty and I discuss the spike in Covid cases in Ireland and the risk of seeing a similar “Ireland Event” here in the US.
The time to act is NOW, not with indiscriminate lockdowns, but with strong restrictions on international and domestic air travel to contain the UK-variant virus while we accelerate vaccine delivery.
A New Gilded Age
A Gilded Age isn’t an age of prosperity. It is an age of the narrative of prosperity, and narratives of prosperity are always top-down political narratives.
There is but one way to tear down top-down political narratives: action.
A Truth That’s Told With Bad Intent
A truth that’s told with bad intent
Beats all the lies you can invent.
– William Blake
Our narratives of COVID-19 are all lies.
They are lies of a particular sort, political narratives that have a nugget of truth within them, but are told with bad intent. They are told this way because it works. Because the nugget of truth hides a deeper, unpleasant truth. And a Big Lie.
Bear Stearns and the Narratives of Systemic Risk
The systemic risk question you need to ask yourself today is the same question you needed to ask in 2008.
What is the micro-level truth of the potential real-world shock, and does that micro-level truth threaten the common knowledge surrounding a levered business model and securitized asset class of enormous size?
Inception
We’re going to change the world, you know … you and me. We’re going to create points of failure for the system of sociopathic oligarchy AT SCALE.
First the People
This is not a chronicle of errors and mistakes made during COVID-19.
This is the story about the inevitable, simultaneous failure of each of the institutions designed to operate in our interest.
It is the story of how we respond to fragility with resilience.
Once in a Lifetime
We are led by high-functioning sociopaths, in our politics and our economy, and nowhere is this more apparent than in our war against COVID-19. It’s a power thing.
Harper's Corner
This year the Super Bowl will have their first female referee. Sarah Thomas was also the first female on-field official in the NFL back in 2015.
Email Newsletter
Subscribe to our Newsletter to get Ben’s notes, the latest insights from the Narrative Machine and information about upcoming events delivered directly to your inbox.
Shop The ET Store
Check out our ET merch and special gift subscriptions!
Search and Discovery
Archive Spotlight
Facebook Delenda Est
More than any other company, Facebook is undermining our democracy and our most integral political rights.
More than any other company, Facebook has bought and paid for political cover at the highest levels of American, Indian and European government, political cover that prevents any of the actions we might take as a society to rid ourselves of this cancer.
Facebook delenda est.
ET Live!
ET Live! – 1.19.2021
Check out the January 19 ET Live, where Ben and Rusty talk with you about the latest ET notes.