The Zeitgeist

Our Finest Hour

By Ben Hunt | April 2, 2020

Until Further Notice

By Rusty Guinn | March 31, 2020

The Miracle Max of MBS

By Rusty Guinn | March 30, 2020

When the Story Bends

By Rusty Guinn | March 24, 2020

Getting PPE to Healthcare Workers and First Responders

By Ben Hunt | March 23, 2020

The Non-Linearity of Need, Pt. 2

By Rusty Guinn | March 19, 2020

Our Escape Story

By Rusty Guinn | March 18, 2020

Margin Call

By Rusty Guinn | March 16, 2020

The Python and the Pig

By Ben Hunt | March 13, 2020

Tick-Tock

By Ben Hunt | March 12, 2020

Don’t Test, Don’t Tell (10 Days Later)

By Ben Hunt | March 8, 2020

The Mozilo Market

By Ben Hunt | February 28, 2020

Join Us. No, Really.

By Rusty Guinn | February 25, 2020

Kitchen Sink It

By Rusty Guinn | February 20, 2020

Thanksgiving

By Rusty Guinn | February 19, 2020

#OurFinestHour

Our Finest Hour

By Ben Hunt | April 2, 2020 | 9

There is no country in the world that mobilizes for war more effectively than the United States. And I know you won’t believe me, but I tell you it is true:

This will be #OurFinestHour.

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Once in a Lifetime

By Ben Hunt | March 29, 2020 | 35

We are led by high-functioning sociopaths, in our politics and our economy, and nowhere is this more apparent than in our war against COVID-19. It’s not a left/right thing. It’s not a Republican/Democrat thing. It’s a power thing.

Enough. It’s time for the Pack to howl.

Empathy + Minimax Regret is the answer. Because 2 + 2 = 4.

Yes, this is a personal note. That’s what this war is for all of us … personal.

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Do The Right Thing

By Ben Hunt | March 19, 2020 | 28

I’m angry that I have to write this note about the airline industry and how to structure the bail-out of United, Delta, American and Southwest. But I must, because the raccoons and the high-functioning sociopaths are looking to get their private losses socialized and their private gains locked in.

Bailout the airlines and their rank-and-file employees? You bet.

Bailout the CEOs and Warren Buffett? Not a chance.

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Lack of Imagination

By Rusty Guinn | March 14, 2020 | 27

The structurally bullish will warn us against failure of nerve. The traders will warn us against hesitation. The structurally bearish will warn us about being unable to shift into a defensive shape. But what we should be worried about now is a lack of imagination.

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Tick-Tock

By Ben Hunt | March 12, 2020 | 15

For the first time our federal government is treating the fight against this virus like the war that it is.

Is it pathetic and sad and a corrupt betrayal of the public trust that it took this long? Absolutely.

But now here we go. And there is no country in the world that mobilizes for war more effectively than the United States.

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The Non-Linearity of Need

By Rusty Guinn | March 9, 2020 | 12

In a potential recession, need isn’t evenly distributed. In a pandemic, that’s even more true. The time to start helping is now.

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ET In Full

We Hanged Our Harps Upon the Willows

By Rusty Guinn | February 10, 2020 | 4

Because the danger of powerful memes, cartoons and narratives is not that they demand our acquiesence. It is that they demand our participation.

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Stuck in the Middle With You

By Ben Hunt | January 30, 2020 | 5

There is a median narrative theorem that can serve as a central pillar of a NEW approach to social choice theory, an approach less pedantic in its assumptions about human nature and less naive in its assumptions about modes of social power.

The median narrative theorem generates powerful predictive hypotheses about elections, hypotheses that predicted Trump’s Republican primary victory in 2016 and – if current data holds – predicts Sanders’ Democratic primary victory in 2020.

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The Curious Case of Candidate Sanders

By Rusty Guinn | January 29, 2020 | 5

Everyone complains that their favorite candidate isn’t being treated fairly in the media. It’s the Bernie Bros’ turn…but are they right?

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A New Road to Serfdom

By Rusty Guinn | January 24, 2020 | 27

There are many roads to serfdom, and they have all become faster and more perilous. We are walking down one of them now.

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The Long Now, Pt. 4 – Snip!

By Ben Hunt | December 26, 2019 | 17

The Long Now has severed the tether between taxation and spending – the most important macroeconomic policy relationship in our social lives as both investors and citizens.

Here’s what that means.

And here’s what we’re going to do about it.

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Epsilon Theory: A 2019 Retrospective

By Rusty Guinn | December 12, 2019 | 11

It is our second time now to turn the lens we apply to other news sources to our own creative output. Here is a Very Epsilon Theory retrospective on 2019.

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Archive Spotlight

When Was I Radicalized? (Boeing edition)

November 5, 2019

I believe it is impossible to separate the modern management practice of self-enrichment through massive levels of stock-based comp from the modern management practice of investor placation through massive levels of stock buybacks … without regulating one or the other practice.

But I’m all ears for any ideas.

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ET Live!

ET Live! – 3.10.2020

March 9, 2020

Covid-19 is a fertile ground for narratives and missionaries of all kinds – from politicians to central banks, corporate leaders and financial media pundits. Join us as we discuss them.

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ET Live! – 2.18.2020

February 18, 2020

This ET Live! is all about Coronavirus, except it’s not – it’s all about how institutions who solve for narrative outcomes invariably create bad results in the Real World.

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