Yeah, It’s Still Water

You know, everyone is all in a tizzy about Softbank paying Adam Neumann $1.7 billion just to go away.

My unpopular opinion: the Adam Neumann story is repeated in a non-infuriating and non-obvious way every day in every S&P 500 company. And it’s been going on for a DECADE.

One day we will recognize the defining Zeitgeist of the Obama/Trump years as an unparalleled transfer of wealth to the managerial class.

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ET In Full

The Long Now, Pt. 3 – Is This Normal? Asking for a Friend

By Ben Hunt | October 17, 2019 | 12

I believe that we are on the cusp of the Long Now becoming irreversible. Or at least irreversible without a cataclysmic Fall.

Why? Because they have mastered the art of stealing our tells. At scale.

Here’s how we start to confound the stolen tells. At scale.

It won’t be noticeable at first. And then it will. And then it becomes a self-sustaining narrative. And then the world starts to change.

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Rust and Blight

By Rusty Guinn | September 11, 2019 | 7

In an orchard, it isn’t always easy to tell the difference between rust and blight. The same goes for our cultural institutions.

Some should be pruned.

Some should be ripped up root and stem.

It’s not always easy to know which. But if we want our sons and daughters to sit in the shade of our trees, we must learn.

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The Long Now, Pt. 2 – Make, Protect, Teach

By Ben Hunt | September 11, 2019 | 29

It’s time to start a fire. To burn, yes, but also to illuminate.

My advice? Abandon the political party as your vehicle for political participation.

My alternative? Find your Pack.

My platform? Make – Protect – Teach.

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Notes from the Diamond #8: Room For Doubt

By David Salem | September 1, 2019 | 4

In both baseball and in investing, we need an all-purpose test of excellence, not just for identifying MVPs like Mike Trout, but for seeing how all of us mere mortals stack up.

ET contributor David Salem makes the case for an investing corollary to baseball’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR). It’s a defense of value investing, but with a twist.

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License to Kill Gophers

By Peter Cecchini | August 22, 2019 | 3

The desire of central banks to forestall recession at all costs reminds us of the war that groundskeeper Carl Spackler had with the gopher in Caddyshack.

Sure, you can defeat the gopher. But you’ve gotta blow up the golf course with dynamite to do it.

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The World ‘Twixt Ought To and Is

By Rusty Guinn | August 18, 2019 | 9

Honest investing means finding a balance between approaches which imply we know everything and those which imply we can’t know anything. It means humility.

We think there are three – and only three – paths to finding this balance. One is the heart of what we are trying to achieve with Epsilon Theory.

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ET Live!

ET Live! – 6.18.2019

June 18, 2019

Join us here at 2PM Eastern today for the latest edition of ET Live. Today’s edition is all about the grotesque charades and cartoons being used to cynically manipulate narratives. Not one to miss.

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ET Live! – 6.4.2019

June 4, 2019

Ben and Rusty update subscribers on the shift from cooperative to competitive games and our narrative research program, with a focus on the China Trade War and US electoral politics.

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ET Live! – 5.14.2019

May 14, 2019

Ben and Rusty discuss games of chicken and multi-level games, and where we think the previously complacent trade and tariffs narrative has gone in early May.

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ET Live! – 4.24.2019

April 24, 2019

In which Ben and Rusty discuss financialization, the incentivizes of low interest rate policy, the ‘financialization’ of education and the meaning of both for us as investors and parents.