#OurFinestHour

Self Assured Destruction

By Ben Hunt | May 30, 2020 | 20

Our leaders have botched the Covid-19 war, and we are defenseless against a now endemic disease.

15,000 to 20,000 Americans officially sick. 500 to 1,000 Americans officially dead.

Every day.

The free world does not easily survive a globally endemic Covid-19.

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A New Gilded Age

By Rusty Guinn | May 24, 2020 | 21

A Gilded Age isn’t an age of prosperity. It is an age of the narrative of prosperity, and narratives of prosperity are always top-down political narratives.

There is but one way to tear down top-down political narratives: action.

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A Truth That’s Told With Bad Intent

By Ben Hunt | May 14, 2020 | 37

A truth that’s told with bad intent
Beats all the lies you can invent.
– William Blake

Our narratives of COVID-19 are all lies.

They are lies of a particular sort, political narratives that have a nugget of truth within them, but are told with bad intent. They are told this way because it works. Because the nugget of truth hides a deeper, unpleasant truth. And a Big Lie.

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ET In Full

What’s the Opposite of ‘Green Shoots’?

By Ben Hunt | June 20, 2013 | 0

An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-whats-the-opposite-of-green-shoots-june-20-2013.pdf (235KB)

Failure to Communicate, Part Deux

By Ben Hunt | June 19, 2013 | 0

A review of Narrative formation immediately after the June 19th FOMC announcement. PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15677/

Through the Looking Glass, or … This is the Red Pill

By Ben Hunt | June 16, 2013 | 1

There are unwritten rules for almost all social phenomena, from investing to writing epic poetry. Not that these weekly notes aspire to Homeric levels (although they do get pretty lengthy), but Epsilon Theory does follow one unwritten rule taken from the Iliad, the Aeneid, etc. in that I began this story in media res– in the middle of …

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What We’ve Got Here Is … Failure to Communicate

By Ben Hunt | June 9, 2013 | 0

From the classic Paul Newman movie, Cool Hand Luke, as the Captain administers Luke’s punishment in the prison yard for yet another escape attempt:  Captain: You gonna get used to wearing those chains after a while, Luke. Don’t you never stop listening to them clinking, ‘cause they gonna remind you what I been saying for your …

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Epsilon Theory Manifesto

By Ben Hunt | June 1, 2013 | 1

Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history, and behavioral analysis. Epsilon Theory is my attempt to lay the foundation for such a perspective. The name comes from the fundamental regression equation of modern portfolio management: y = α + β+ …

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Friday Was an Important Day

By Ben Hunt | November 18, 2012 | 0

An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the Nov. 18th Boehner/Reid press conference. epsilon-theory-friday-was-an-important-day-november-18-2012.pdf (247 KB)

ET Poll

Are States Reopening Too Fast?

Archive Spotlight

A Holy Day

May 27, 2019

If Memorial Day is anything, it is a day for telling and re-telling stories about Full Hearts. Let me tell and re-tell you the story of Milton Lee Olive III.

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ET Live!

ET Live! – 4.28.2020

April 28, 2020

Join us this afternoon for the Pandemic Edition of Epsilon Theory Live! As usual, we start promptly, so if you don’t have video within a short period after 2PM ET, please refresh your browser. We recommend Chrome for the best experience.

ET Live! – 3.10.2020

March 9, 2020

Covid-19 is a fertile ground for narratives and missionaries of all kinds – from politicians to central banks, corporate leaders and financial media pundits. Join us as we discuss them.

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